Will humanity go extinct before 2030?
72
1kṀ43k2030
2%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
If at least one human is alive on Jan 1, 2030, then this question resolves to NO.
For this question, we'll define humans the same as this Metaculus question:
as biological creatures who have as their ancestors – via a chain of live births from mothers – circa 2000 humans OR who could mate with circa 2000 humans to produce viable offspring. (So AIs, ems, genetically engineered beings of a different species brought up in artificial wombs, etc. would not count). Any living humans living anywhere in the observable universe (or multiverse) (who are known to the entities operating Metaculus) on that date will be sufficient to resolve the question negatively.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will Humans become extinct in 2300?
50% chance
Will Humans go extinct by 2200?
39% chance
Will humanity survive until 2100?
83% chance
If humanity goes extinct by 2030, will AI unwipe out humanity by 2040?
34% chance
Will Humans become extinct in 2400?
64% chance
Will humanity still exist in 2100?
85% chance
Will humans go extinct before 2100? [Resolves to Metaculus in 2027]
4% chance
Will humans be an endangered species by 2300?
39% chance
Will humans be an endangered species by 2100?
7% chance
Will humanity wipe out AI before the year 2030?
7% chance