Global catastrophe series: By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?
17
1kṀ561
2100
33%
chance

This question will resolve as Yes if before 2100, the human population (on Earth, and possibly elsewhere) decreases by at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less. Years are here defined as consecutive calendar years.

Resovles the same as https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/global-population-decline-10-by-2100/

By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?
The aggregate of 273 Metaculus community forecasters was 38% on Jul 21, 2023.

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seeing how there's a 100-10% that any individual better's "yes" won't be payed out, this market will always be optimistic

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