Global catastrophe series: By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?
➕
Plus
16
Ṁ472
2100
26%
chance

This question will resolve as Yes if before 2100, the human population (on Earth, and possibly elsewhere) decreases by at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less. Years are here defined as consecutive calendar years.

Resovles the same as https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/global-population-decline-10-by-2100/

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:

seeing how there's a 100-10% that any individual better's "yes" won't be payed out, this market will always be optimistic

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules