Will 50% of the human population die in a 12 month time period before 2050? | Manifold

Will 50% of the human population die in a 12 month time period before 2050?

Plus

31

Ṁ2868

2050

14%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#Existential Risk

#Human population crisis

#Non-AI Doom composite

Get

1,000

and

3.00

Sort by:

It's interesting that this market is at 8% and the market on >50% of the population dying for because of misaligned AI is at 27%. I think there's a bias for people who put a significant probability on transformative AI to still use the business-as-usual mindset when forecasting non-AI questions?

The 2030s yes.

@MarkIngraham That's a 10 year time period, not a 12 month time period.

Related questions

Will a global catastrophe kill at least 10% of humans before 2100, and what will be the cause?

Will half the population die from biotechnology by 2100?

Will I be alive by 2100?

By 2100, will at least 1 billion people remain alive?

Will misaligned AI kill >50% of humanity before 2050?

What will happen before 2050? (Mega market)

Will Humans go extinct by 2200?

Will humanity go extinct before 2030?

Will AI cause a global catastrophe killing at least 10% of humans before 2100?

Will Humans become extinct in 2300?

Related questions

Will a global catastrophe kill at least 10% of humans before 2100, and what will be the cause?

What will happen before 2050? (Mega market)

Will half the population die from biotechnology by 2100?

Will Humans go extinct by 2200?

Will I be alive by 2100?

Will humanity go extinct before 2030?

By 2100, will at least 1 billion people remain alive?

Will AI cause a global catastrophe killing at least 10% of humans before 2100?

Will misaligned AI kill >50% of humanity before 2050?

Will Humans become extinct in 2300?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules