Will 50% of the human population die in a 12 month time period before 2050?

Adrian

closes 2050

25%

chance

ALL

Get Ṁ500 play money

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It's interesting that this market is at 8% and the market on >50% of the population dying for because of misaligned AI is at 27%. I think there's a bias for people who put a significant probability on transformative AI to still use the business-as-usual mindset when forecasting non-AI questions?

Mark Ingrahambought Ṁ5 of NO

The 2030s yes.

1 reply

Robin Green

@MarkIngraham That's a 10 year time period, not a 12 month time period.

arbmaster39247 bought Ṁ10 NO from 26% to 25%

yetimaster bought Ṁ1 NO at 26%

Kevin Fischer sold Ṁ37 NO from 24% to 26%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ11/Ṁ100 YES at 24% (cancelled) 🤖

Kevin Fischer bought Ṁ100 NO from 27% to 22%

Henri Thunberg bought Ṁ20 NO from 28% to 27%

Henri Thunberg bought Ṁ10 NO from 29% to 28%

Marktweise filled limit order Ṁ14/Ṁ100 NO at 29% (cancelled)

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ24/Ṁ100 YES at 30% (cancelled) 🤖

Marktweise filled limit order Ṁ100/Ṁ100 NO at 29%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ19/Ṁ100 YES at 33% (cancelled) 🤖

Doge bought Ṁ75 NO from 36% to 30%

eppsilon sold Ṁ10 NO from 35% to 36%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ9/Ṁ100 YES at 35% (cancelled) 🤖

🦔 sold Ṁ26 YES from 38% to 33%

eppsilon bought Ṁ10 NO from 39% to 38%

wylderai bought Ṁ10 NO from 41% to 39%

Jack bought Ṁ50 NO from 48% to 41%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ12/Ṁ100 YES at 48% (cancelled) 🤖

Justified use of Fallibilism bought Ṁ20 NO from 49% to 45%

Ev created limit order for Ṁ50 NO at 53%

PhilC sold Ṁ125 YES at 49%

Ev filled limit order Ṁ124/Ṁ125 YES at 49% (cancelled)

Martin Randall bought Ṁ35 YES from 41% to 49%

PhilC bought Ṁ20 YES from 37% to 41%

cos created limit order for Ṁ1 YES at 19% 🤖

cos created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 63% 🤖

cos filled limit order Ṁ1/Ṁ1 YES at 29% 🤖

cos created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 53% 🤖

howtodowtle bought Ṁ10 NO from 39% to 37%

PhilC sold Ṁ4 YES from 40% to 39%

PhilC bought Ṁ15 YES from 36% to 40%

Jonathan Ray bought Ṁ25 NO from 40% to 36%

PhilC bought Ṁ70 YES from 39% to 40%

Martin Randall filled limit order Ṁ100/Ṁ100 NO at 40%

PhilC sold Ṁ2 YES at 39%

Eliener Unowkysy bought Ṁ1 NO from 40% to 39%

Eliener Unowkysy bought Ṁ1 NO at 40%

Thomas Kwa bought Ṁ30 YES from 32% to 40%

PhilC sold Ṁ6 YES from 34% to 32%

Eliener Unowkysy bought Ṁ1 NO at 34%

Sal sold Ṁ12 NO from 32% to 34%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ14/Ṁ15 YES at 32% (cancelled)

Sal bought Ṁ65 NO from 37% to 28%

PhilC sold Ṁ1 YES from 38% to 37%

Martin Randall bought Ṁ40 YES from 26% to 38%

PhilC bought Ṁ5 YES from 25% to 26%

Eliener Unowkysy bought Ṁ1 NO at 25%

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