
Will 50% of the human population die in a 12 month time period before 2050?
30
closes 2050
25%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Amount
Ṁ0
Ṁ50
Ṁ100
Payout if YES
Ṁ38 +286.4%
New probability
27% +1.3%
Get Ṁ500 play money
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It's interesting that this market is at 8% and the market on >50% of the population dying for because of misaligned AI is at 27%. I think there's a bias for people who put a significant probability on transformative AI to still use the business-as-usual mindset when forecasting non-AI questions?
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0 YES payouts
Ṁ487
Ṁ253
Ṁ125
Ṁ110
Ṁ57
Ṁ3
0 NO payouts
Ṁ336
Ṁ163
Ṁ111
Ṁ110
Ṁ102
Ṁ77
Ṁ41
Ṁ40
Ṁ16
Ṁ11






































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