It's interesting that this market is at 8% and the market on >50% of the population dying for because of misaligned AI is at 27%. I think there's a bias for people who put a significant probability on transformative AI to still use the business-as-usual mindset when forecasting non-AI questions?

The 2030s yes.

@MarkIngraham That's a 10 year time period, not a 12 month time period.