Will AI kill >20% of the human population before 2030?
95
closes 2030
28%
chance

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deagol avatar
Daniel Tellois predicting NO at 24% (edited)

FSD Tesla car/truck deaths? Plane crashes by buggy AI airport traffic controller? Self flying planes? AI-driven CRISPR gene editing discovery of lethal virus escapes lab? AI heart or glucose monitor fails? How will we ever know this mounting death count?

NikitaSkovoroda avatar
Nikita Skovorodais predicting YES at 20%

Can't be lower than https://manifold.markets/MartinRandall/will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-before-th-d8733b2114a8

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?
26% chance. If humanity is still around on Jan 1, 2030, then this market resolves to NO. If humanity is not around but AI(s) are then this market resolves to YES. If neither humanity nor AIs are around then this market does not resolve. See also: @/Tripping/will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-before-th-6d…
deagol avatar
Daniel Tellois predicting NO at 25%

@NikitaSkovoroda Then why not go sell that one, you got 12.5k YES there? Just because a whale is propping that doesn’t mean everything else must be as they say. The proper arb is you go there kill that whale not the minnows here.

deagol avatar
Daniel Tellois predicting NO at 25%

@NikitaSkovoroda Also, far from the same criteria. This “AI kills” specifically requires deaths caused by AI decisions. There it’s just correlation “will humans or AI be here or not” (misleading title).

NikitaSkovoroda avatar
Nikita Skovorodabought Ṁ90 of YES(edited)

@deagol Why should I sell that one when I think that both of those are lower than actual prob

I just bought both

deagol avatar
Daniel Tellosold Ṁ0 of NO(edited)

@NikitaSkovoroda you say the price here can’t be lower than the one there (this is just false since the criteria are different but let’s put that aside), yet you got 1k more YES there than here. You’re buying more of something at a higher price, and talked yourself into this trap because some whale told you that’s the way.

JonathanRay avatar
Jonathan Rayis predicting NO at 24%

@NikitaSkovoroda Non-AGI Ai military drones or nuclear launch systems count, so this should be a bit higher % than the same date extinction market

deagol avatar
Daniel Tellosold Ṁ38 of NO(edited)

@JonathanRay wait I’m confused, isn’t that the exact opposite of what you told Isaac here?

This market requires deaths caused by AI, a much stronger claim than “who will be here humans or AI”. If AI is gonna survive us, there’s so many other non-AI causes for our extinction like human-launched nukes, climate stuff, asteroid, super virus, etc., and all of these cases are excluded here but count there.

deagol avatar
Daniel Tellois predicting NO at 23%

@JonathanRay can’t tell the distinction you’re making, can you please clarify? thanks.

3 months ago:

“an arms race that includes AI capabilities, one country nukes another” — Isaac

“doesn't count since humans nuked other humans, AI didn’t make them do it” — Jonathan

a month ago:

“person or government tells the AI to kill people” — Adrian

“yes killbots in WW3 count if they use AI“ — Jonathan

now:

“Non-AGI Ai military drones or nuclear launch systems count“ — Jonathan

JonathanRay avatar
Jonathan Rayis predicting NO at 24%

@deagol I don’t see any inconsistency there. If the nuclear launches are initiated by AI systems, it counts. If humans decide to nuke other humans to stop them from developing AI, that doesn’t count.

deagol avatar
Daniel Tellosold Ṁ76 of NO(edited)

@JonathanRay I understood Isaac’s hypothetical as humans using AI-capable weapons systems to stop opponents from developing AGI. So basically same question as Adrian (note the AI there is not deciding to kill, only executes person or government command). Finally you mention “non-AGI AI drones” this phrase suggests to me those still don’t have agency (“non-AGI”) and remain command and control by humans, so again AI did not initiate nukes. Am I getting bogged down on a colloquial use of AI to refer to AGI in some contexts but not others? Sorry if I’m being dense.

JonathanRay avatar
Jonathan Rayis predicting NO at 24%

@deagol If AI capabilities are part of weapons that humans decide to use against other humans, it counts. Kind of fuzzy where you draw the line on what counts as enough AI capabilities. It would be more than the advanced guidance systems that already exist, but less than full AGI.

deagol avatar
Daniel Tellois predicting NO at 24%

@JonathanRay got it, thanks.

MartinRandall avatar
Martin Randallis predicting NO at 24%

I guess this is total deaths from AI over the time period divided by total lives over the time period?

JonathanRay avatar
Jonathan Rayis predicting YES at 20%

deaths divided by peak world population in the time period

ahalekelly avatar
Adrianis predicting NO at 19%

Does this include if a person or government tells the AI to kill people, or only if the AI decides on it's own to kill people?

JonathanRay avatar
Jonathan Rayis predicting YES at 16%

@ahalekelly Either. Government controlled killbots in WW3 count if they use AI

IsaacKing avatar
Isaac

How broad is this? If the US and China get into an arms race that includes AI capabilities, and one country decides to nuke the other because they're worried the other side has invented GAI, does that count?

JonathanRay avatar
Jonathan Rayis predicting YES at 8%

@IsaacKing that doesn't count because humans made the decision to nuke other humans, without an AI manipulating them into doing it

MartinRandall avatar
Martin Randallis predicting NO at 24%

@JonathanRay What if the nuclear targets are set using AI techniques to maximize casualties? Or if the nuclear weapons are developed using AI nuclear simulations?

deagol avatar
Daniel Tellois predicting NO at 24%

@MartinRandall my phone uses AI so including anything that was designed, developed, sold, or operated with the help of AI seems way too broad to me.

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