US enter a recession in 2024? (Two quarters negative GDP growth)
21
144
1k
2025
18%
chance

Resolves YES if there are two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth starting in 2024, otherwise NO. (The starting year is defined as the year of the first of the consecutive quarters. For example, Q4 and Q1 of the following year would count.)

Resolves according to BEA data, 3rd estimate. See https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.

Note that this is not resolved based on NBER, the official definition of recession in the US. See

  • If BEA changes the way estimates are released or changed, resolves based on the latest official estimate as of 4 months after the end of the quarter.

  • May be preliminarily resolved based on BEA 1st estimate, but the final resolution will be based on 3rd estimate.

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