This market asks when the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) will determine the next US recession began. The NBER is the official arbiter of US business cycles and typically announces recession start dates months after they actually begin.

This market will resolve to the option that corresponds to when the NBER declares the recession started, not when they make the announcement.

Resolution will be based on official NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee announcements: https://www.nber.org/research/business-cycle-dating