10
140
2026
34%
chance

Will there be two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth after revisions in 2025?

This includes spillover from the last quarter of 2024, so the ones that count would be:

2024 Q4 negative Q1 negative

Q1 negative Q2 negative

Q2 negative Q3 negative

Q3 negative Q4 negative

Resolving based on FRED US Real GDP series, after revisions. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1#0

I will wait until the 3rd estimate for Q4 2025 is released, which should be sometime around the end of March 2026, plus some delay for FRED to reflect the updated figure.

Get Ṁ600 play money

More related questions