Resolves YES 1% chance, N/A 99% chance
Resolved
N/A
Jun 17
M$1,980 bet
We'll generate a random number r between 0 and 1 using the procedure described below, and this resolves YES if r < 0.01, N/A otherwise. (If you don't care about the details of the random number generation, just imagine that we use random.org to generate a random number between 0 and 1, but in such a way that everyone can verify that there was no cheating.) The random number will be generated by using the bitcoin blockchain as a public randomness beacon. Using the data at https://www.blockchain.com/btc/blocks?page=1, take the earliest block mined after the market close that receives at least 3 confirmations. Take the last 8 hexadecimal digits of the hash, convert that to an integer, and divide by 16^8. This results in a random number between 0 and 1 that is publicly verifiable and highly resistant against manipulation. (See for example https://eprint.iacr.org/2015/1015.pdf) This is meant to test how participants respond to a small chance of payout, and how well odds amplification works, some related markets: https://manifold.markets/Tetraspace/100-amplified-odds-details-within-w https://manifold.markets/Austin/will-manifold-ever-be-worth-1t-10 https://manifold.markets/Undox/will-mm-offer-a-built-in-odds-ampli Clarification: "block mined after the market close" will be defined based on the timestamp shown on blockchain.com reported to the minute (e.g. "June 08, 2022 at 9:02 AM PDT") - if that is strictly after the market close time expressed in minutes ("Jun 15, 2022 11:59 pm PDT") then it will be considered "mined after the market close"
jack
Jack is betting YES at 100%
Resolves N/A. Relevant block is https://www.blockchain.com/btc/block/00000000000000000007ef3627ba4f7efc6461ec78c2837ca8cbf077fb884e0c Last 8 hex digits is fb884e0c = 0.982548597. Dividing by 16^8, we get our random number 0.982548597
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JonathanNankivell
I've been trying to work out what actually happens when a market resolves as N/A. Is it that people who own shares get their purchase refunded? If someone has cashed out with a profit, does that profit get undone to? How would that work if you have few funds? I can't find the details. All it says in the docs is: > Creators can also resolve N/A to cancel all transactions and return the money, or resolve to a particular probability (say 50%). How does it actually work? https://docs.manifold.markets/binary-markets
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jack
@JonathanNankivell I'm pretty sure how it works is all transactions are undone - both sales and purchases are reversed. If someone bought and sold with a profit of M$10, that is undone and their cash balance is reduced by M$10 (similarly with losses being reversed). This means people can think of all trading on this market as conditional on the random number generator rolling a 1 on a 100-sided dice. I think it's possible for your M$ balance to go negative if you cashed out with a profit and invested it all elsewhere. The fact that cashing out can be reversed is a bit weird, but letting those profits/losses stand would create other weirdness. E.g. it would mean that selling YES locks in a guaranteed profit even though holding YES to resolution only has a 1% chance of profit - so then the way people traded on this market would look very different, and the market would no longer reflect the same conditional probability.
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MartinRandall
Martin Randall is betting YES at 93%
This is closing in one week but with the N/A chance it's like a market that closes in two years for projected return.
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jack
@MartinRandall Yeah I think that's a pretty reasonable way to look at it.
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jack
Although I think for other reasons people probably prefer an quick trade (with a small probability of gain and no chance of loss) over a 2-year trade (with a guaranteed gain). E.g. it's easier to predict whether you'll need the money over the next week vs the next 2 years. You could buy into a 2-year guaranteed YES market and sell a week later if you need to, but the liquidity is poor and prices inconsistent, so there's no guarantee you can sell it in a week for the equivalent of a week's yields.
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