Resolves YES 1% chance, N/A 99% chance
12
105Ṁ1980
resolved Jun 17
Resolved
N/A
We'll generate a random number r between 0 and 1 using the procedure described below, and this resolves YES if r < 0.01, N/A otherwise. (If you don't care about the details of the random number generation, just imagine that we use random.org to generate a random number between 0 and 1, but in such a way that everyone can verify that there was no cheating.) The random number will be generated by using the bitcoin blockchain as a public randomness beacon. Using the data at https://www.blockchain.com/btc/blocks?page=1, take the earliest block mined after the market close that receives at least 3 confirmations. Take the last 8 hexadecimal digits of the hash, convert that to an integer, and divide by 16^8. This results in a random number between 0 and 1 that is publicly verifiable and highly resistant against manipulation. (See for example https://eprint.iacr.org/2015/1015.pdf) This is meant to test how participants respond to a small chance of payout, and how well odds amplification works, some related markets: https://manifold.markets/Tetraspace/100-amplified-odds-details-within-w https://manifold.markets/Austin/will-manifold-ever-be-worth-1t-10 https://manifold.markets/Undox/will-mm-offer-a-built-in-odds-ampli Clarification: "block mined after the market close" will be defined based on the timestamp shown on blockchain.com reported to the minute (e.g. "June 08, 2022 at 9:02 AM PDT") - if that is strictly after the market close time expressed in minutes ("Jun 15, 2022 11:59 pm PDT") then it will be considered "mined after the market close"
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predictedYES
Resolves N/A. Relevant block is https://www.blockchain.com/btc/block/00000000000000000007ef3627ba4f7efc6461ec78c2837ca8cbf077fb884e0c Last 8 hex digits is fb884e0c = 0.982548597. Dividing by 16^8, we get our random number 0.982548597
I've been trying to work out what actually happens when a market resolves as N/A. Is it that people who own shares get their purchase refunded? If someone has cashed out with a profit, does that profit get undone to? How would that work if you have few funds? I can't find the details. All it says in the docs is: > Creators can also resolve N/A to cancel all transactions and return the money, or resolve to a particular probability (say 50%). How does it actually work? https://docs.manifold.markets/binary-markets
@JonathanNankivell I'm pretty sure how it works is all transactions are undone - both sales and purchases are reversed. If someone bought and sold with a profit of M$10, that is undone and their cash balance is reduced by M$10 (similarly with losses being reversed). This means people can think of all trading on this market as conditional on the random number generator rolling a 1 on a 100-sided dice. I think it's possible for your M$ balance to go negative if you cashed out with a profit and invested it all elsewhere. The fact that cashing out can be reversed is a bit weird, but letting those profits/losses stand would create other weirdness. E.g. it would mean that selling YES locks in a guaranteed profit even though holding YES to resolution only has a 1% chance of profit - so then the way people traded on this market would look very different, and the market would no longer reflect the same conditional probability.
predictedYES
This is closing in one week but with the N/A chance it's like a market that closes in two years for projected return.
@MartinRandall Yeah I think that's a pretty reasonable way to look at it.
Although I think for other reasons people probably prefer an quick trade (with a small probability of gain and no chance of loss) over a 2-year trade (with a guaranteed gain). E.g. it's easier to predict whether you'll need the money over the next week vs the next 2 years. You could buy into a 2-year guaranteed YES market and sell a week later if you need to, but the liquidity is poor and prices inconsistent, so there's no guarantee you can sell it in a week for the equivalent of a week's yields.

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