Resolves YES 1% chance, N/A 99% chance

We'll generate a random number r between 0 and 1 using the procedure described below, and this resolves YES if r < 0.01, N/A otherwise. (If you don't care about the details of the random number generation, just imagine that we use random.org to generate a random number between 0 and 1, but in such a way that everyone can verify that there was no cheating.) The random number will be generated by using the bitcoin blockchain as a public randomness beacon. Using the data at https://www.blockchain.com/btc/blocks?page=1, take the earliest block mined after the market close that receives at least 3 confirmations. Take the last 8 hexadecimal digits of the hash, convert that to an integer, and divide by 16^8. This results in a random number between 0 and 1 that is publicly verifiable and highly resistant against manipulation. (See for example https://eprint.iacr.org/2015/1015.pdf) This is meant to test how participants respond to a small chance of payout, and how well odds amplification works, some related markets: https://manifold.markets/Tetraspace/100-amplified-odds-details-within-w https://manifold.markets/Austin/will-manifold-ever-be-worth-1t-10 https://manifold.markets/Undox/will-mm-offer-a-built-in-odds-ampli Clarification: "block mined after the market close" will be defined based on the timestamp shown on blockchain.com reported to the minute (e.g. "June 08, 2022 at 9:02 AM PDT") - if that is strictly after the market close time expressed in minutes ("Jun 15, 2022 11:59 pm PDT") then it will be considered "mined after the market close"

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