This market resolves NO in a year.
18
100Ṁ48752026
1%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market resolves NO on March 17, 2026.
Old rules below:
I'll ask @FairlyRandom to generate a random number between 1 and 2, inclusive. If it rolls a 2, this market will resolve YES, and if it rolls a 1, it will resolve NO. I'll use a suitable alternative if @FairlyRandom isn't available.
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@musuko384 Originally, this market resolved YES in a week or NO in a year based on a coinflip. NO won. The market was meant to test whether the disparity in resolution time changed the probability from 50%. Before the coinflip, it consistently traded at slightly above 50%, as expected, although it was closer than I originally predicted.
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People are also trading
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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