This market resolves NO in a year.
8
100Ṁ15282026
3%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
I'll ask @FairlyRandom to generate a random number between 1 and 2, inclusive. If it rolls a 2, this market will resolve YES, and if it rolls a 1, it will resolve NO. I'll use a suitable alternative if @FairlyRandom isn't available.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
This market resolves NO in a year.
1% chance
This market has a ~49% chance of resolving as YES in early 2026
49% chance
This market stays open forever.
72% chance
Resolves to YES in 2030 with 5% chance
6% chance
This market has a 5% chance of resolving YES, and otherwise stays open forever
79% chance
This market has a ~49% chance of resolving as YES in early 2030
49% chance
Resolves YES on Jan 1 2029
98% chance
Sort by:
People are also trading
Related questions
This market resolves NO in a year.
1% chance
This market has a ~49% chance of resolving as YES in early 2026
49% chance
This market stays open forever.
72% chance
Resolves to YES in 2030 with 5% chance
6% chance
This market has a 5% chance of resolving YES, and otherwise stays open forever
79% chance
This market has a ~49% chance of resolving as YES in early 2030
49% chance
Resolves YES on Jan 1 2029
98% chance