Will MM offer a built in odds amplifier, in 2022?

14

202Ṁ1081

resolved Jan 15

Resolved

NO

1D

1W

1M

ALL

An ODDS amplifier makes betting on low probability events a bit more fun. Let's say X has probability about 1% in the minds of bettors. In a normal market this is problematic, people won't bet NO because they lock their money up, risk incorrect resolution for a say a measly 1M for 200M bet. With amplified odds you say "Market resolves YES if X" "Market resolves NO if not X and I roll 1 on a 100-sided dice" "Otherwise resolves N/A" Then the probability of the market should be around 50%, since YES and NO are equally likely. And that gives more finesse for the market to decide exactly how near 1% the probability is. This market resolves YES if MM makes this a build in feature, or a feature with a similar goal to encourage betting on low probability markets. Although possible to do this manually, MM could automate the random number picking part of it, which is always a pain.

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we should just have an actually good mechanism and actually good UI for betting at low odds

Yeah I was using this mechanism for https://manifold.markets/Austin/will-manifold-ever-be-worth-1t-10 Think it could be cool, but obviously adds complexity as well...

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