Will MM offer a built in odds amplifier, in 2022?
14
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Ṁ1.1KṀ202
resolved Jan 15
Resolved
NO1D
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1M
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An ODDS amplifier makes betting on low probability events a bit more fun.
Let's say X has probability about 1% in the minds of bettors.
In a normal market this is problematic, people won't bet NO because they lock their money up, risk incorrect resolution for a say a measly 1M for 200M bet.
With amplified odds you say
"Market resolves YES if X"
"Market resolves NO if not X and I roll 1 on a 100-sided dice"
"Otherwise resolves N/A"
Then the probability of the market should be around 50%, since YES and NO are equally likely. And that gives more finesse for the market to decide exactly how near 1% the probability is.
This market resolves YES if MM makes this a build in feature, or a feature with a similar goal to encourage betting on low probability markets.
Although possible to do this manually, MM could automate the random number picking part of it, which is always a pain.
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Yeah I was using this mechanism for https://manifold.markets/Austin/will-manifold-ever-be-worth-1t-10
Think it could be cool, but obviously adds complexity as well...
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