Resolves to YES in 2030 with 5% chance | Manifold

Resolves to YES in 2030 with 5% chance

9

110Ṁ434

2030

9%

chance

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Once it is 2030, I will generate a uniformly random integer in [1,100] and this resolves YES if that number <= 5, else resolves NO.

Update 2025-07-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has specified they will use the Fairly Random Bot to generate the random number for resolution.

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Resolves yes in year 4000

Related questions

This market has a ~49% chance of resolving as YES in early 2026

Resolves No in 2030

This market resolves NO in a year.

This market resolves NO in a year.

This question will resolve YES on 2026-01-01

This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2030

Resolves No in 2100

Will any of my current or future "WEIRD doomsday" markets resolve to YES by 2030?

One year from now, will the percentage that this question resolves YES (as shown by Manifold) be above 50%?

Resolves yes in year 4000

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