Resolves to YES in 2030 with 5% chance | Manifold

Resolves to YES in 2030 with 5% chance

8

110Ṁ428

2030

6%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Once it is 2030, I will generate a uniformly random integer in [1,100] and this resolves YES if that number <= 5, else resolves NO.

Get

1,000

to start trading!

Related questions

This market has a ~49% chance of resolving as YES in early 2026

This question will resolve YES on 2026-01-01

Resolves No in 2100

This market has a ~49% chance of resolving as YES in early 2030

This market resolves to YES on December 31st 2050

Resolves No in 2030

This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2030

Will any of my current or future "WEIRD doomsday" markets resolve to YES by 2030?

Resolves YES on Jan 1 2029

Resolves yes in year 4000

Related questions

This market has a ~49% chance of resolving as YES in early 2026

Resolves No in 2030

This question will resolve YES on 2026-01-01

This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2030

Resolves No in 2100

Will any of my current or future "WEIRD doomsday" markets resolve to YES by 2030?

This market has a ~49% chance of resolving as YES in early 2030

Resolves YES on Jan 1 2029

This market resolves to YES on December 31st 2050

Resolves yes in year 4000

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