Resolves to YES in 2030 with 5% chance | Manifold

Resolves to YES in 2030 with 5% chance

Basic

8

Ṁ428

2030

6%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Once it is 2030, I will generate a uniformly random integer in [1,100] and this resolves YES if that number <= 5, else resolves NO.

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#Interest Rates

Get

1,000

and

3.00

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One year from now, will the percentage that this question resolves YES (as shown by Manifold) be above 50%?

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Related questions

One year from now, will the percentage that this question resolves YES (as shown by Manifold) be above 50%?

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Will any of my current or future "WEIRD doomsday" markets resolve to YES by 2030?

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This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2030

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