Will Manifold ever be worth $1T? [% / 10]
Dec 31, 2030
M$133 bet
Continuation of https://manifold.markets/Austin/will-manifold-ever-be-worth-1b . There's, what, 4 companies in the world that have hit this milestone? (looked it up, it was 6: Apple, MSFT, Saudi Aramco, TSLA, GOOG, AMZN.) I'm leveraging the probability by 10x as follows: if at market close time, this would resolve to NO, I'll first roll a d10, and only resolve NO if the d10 comes up with a 0. So for example, a 30% chance in this market would mean a 3% chance IRL. (I'm hoping I did the math right; if not, lmk and I'll N/A this)

Austin a month ago

Oh yes, I realized I hadn't actually thought about it but I think you're right that N/Aing is the correct result to make this work. Yeah the time-preference will hypothetically be solved once we bring back loans; just wanted to capture this idea down in a market for future reference.

Adam a month ago

you should explain what happens if you roll a non-0; presumably you're N/Aing it if a non-zero is rolled, but good to be explicit. I think this kind of lever is ill-suited to long-term predictions, as I'm not sure how the time preference interacts with the leveraged odds thing.