Will Manifold ever be worth $1T? [% / 10]

25

แน7562030

10%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Continuation of https://manifold.markets/Austin/will-manifold-ever-be-worth-1b .
There's, what, 4 companies in the world that have hit this milestone? (looked it up, it was 6: Apple, MSFT, Saudi Aramco, TSLA, GOOG, AMZN.)
I'm leveraging the probability by 10x as follows: if at market close time, this would resolve to NO, I'll first roll a d10, and only resolve NO if the d10 comes up with a 0. So for example, a 30% chance in this market would mean a 3% chance IRL.
(I'm hoping I did the math right; if not, lmk and I'll N/A this)

Get แน600 play money

## Related questions

Sort by:

I think this amplification method actually amplifies the odds by 10x, not the probability. See https://manifold.markets/Tetraspace/100-amplified-odds-details-within-w.
As an example with probabilities, if there is a 50% chance of hitting 1T (which resolves YES), then there's a 45% chance of N/A and a 5% chance of NO, so the chance of YES in non-N/A resolutions is 50/(50+5) = 90.1%.
Same example with odds: probability 50% = odds 1, multiply by 10 -> odds 10 = probability 10/(10+1) = 90.1%.

## Related questions

Will Manifold be profitable before 2030?

62% chance

Will Manifold ever be worth $1B?

11% chance

Will Manifold's post-money valuation be higher than Kalshi's at the end of 2027?

25% chance

Will Manifold "be around" in 20 years?

52% chance

Will Manifold be profitable before 2040?

64% chance

If Manifold continues to allow mana to be sent to charity or redeemed for other objects of value, will Manifold be valued at >=$33 million USD before the end of 2024?

32% chance

Will Manifold IPO by 2030?

17% chance

Will Manifold display sell value in portfolio by end of 2024?

29% chance

Will Manifold be acquired by end of 2030?

68% chance

Will Manifold have raised $1M USD or more for charity by EOY 2026?

61% chance