Will Manifold ever be worth $1T? [% / 10]
Manifold Business Future•Manifold Investors
24
41
Ṁ231
2030
5%
chance
Continuation of https://manifold.markets/Austin/will-manifold-ever-be-worth-1b . There's, what, 4 companies in the world that have hit this milestone? (looked it up, it was 6: Apple, MSFT, Saudi Aramco, TSLA, GOOG, AMZN.) I'm leveraging the probability by 10x as follows: if at market close time, this would resolve to NO, I'll first roll a d10, and only resolve NO if the d10 comes up with a 0. So for example, a 30% chance in this market would mean a 3% chance IRL. (I'm hoping I did the math right; if not, lmk and I'll N/A this)
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I think this amplification method actually amplifies the odds by 10x, not the probability. See https://manifold.markets/Tetraspace/100-amplified-odds-details-within-w. As an example with probabilities, if there is a 50% chance of hitting 1T (which resolves YES), then there's a 45% chance of N/A and a 5% chance of NO, so the chance of YES in non-N/A resolutions is 50/(50+5) = 90.1%. Same example with odds: probability 50% = odds 1, multiply by 10 -> odds 10 = probability 10/(10+1) = 90.1%.
@jack concur Currently 5.25:1 or 52:1 odds (~1.9%)
Oh yes, I realized I hadn't actually thought about it but I think you're right that N/Aing is the correct result to make this work. Yeah the time-preference will hypothetically be solved once we bring back loans; just wanted to capture this idea down in a market for future reference.
you should explain what happens if you roll a non-0; presumably you're N/Aing it if a non-zero is rolled, but good to be explicit. I think this kind of lever is ill-suited to long-term predictions, as I'm not sure how the time preference interacts with the leveraged odds thing.

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