@jacksonpolack I would interpret the 3% as roughly 0% to 6%. Yes, discount rates apply, and the high chance of N/A means that there's ~100x less incentive to buy NO than usual, amplifying the effect of discount rates.

One superforecasting group put the probability at about 0.02% per month a few months ago - see https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/2nDTrDPZJBEerZGrk/samotsvety-nuclear-risk-update-october-2022. So I think this market did end up being in the right ballpark earlier. At the end of the year it should have gotten closer to 0 but there were better profit opportunities for year-end free money.

@Tetraspace first 42 digits are 534849D4B6FB0F958C860A0D38007F201C9B7E3FD6, mod 100 is 32, so resolve N/A

The pulse used will be https://beacon.nist.gov/beacon/2.0/pulse/time/1672531200 if that happens after midnight, otherwise the next one, I think.