(100× amplified odds; details within) Will a nuclear weapon hit London in 2022?

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Ṁ46k

resolved Jan 1

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N/A

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This market resolves YES if a nuclear weapon is detonated in or above Greater London. If a nuclear weapon does not hit London, then I will check the first 42 digits of the MNIST beacon, mod 100, for the first beacon after this question closes, or another public fair source of randomness if that turns out to be a bad way to generate a public truly random number for whatever reason. If it is 0, I will resolve NO. Otherwise, I will resolve N/A. This means that, for this market, you should treat NO as if it is 100 times less likely to happen than it actually is. For example, if your actual expected outcome is 0.01% YES, 99.99% NO, you should expect this to resolve with probabilities 0.01% YES, 0.9999% NO, 98.9901% N/A, which means that your price of a YES share should be ~1% (actually 0.99%). Some other values, for calibration (using the formula YES' = YES/(YES + (1-YES)/100), where YES' is the price for this question, and YES is your actual probability): 0.02% YES => ~2% YES' (actually 1.96%) 0.05% YES => ~5% YES' (actually 4.76%) 0.1% YES => 9% YES' 0.2% YES => 17% YES' 0.5% YES => 33% YES' 1% YES => 50% YES' 2% YES => 67% YES' 5% YES => 84% YES' 10% YES => 92% YES' 20% YES => 96% YES' 50% YES => 99% YES' 100% YES => 100% YES'

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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predictedNO

isn't the 3% here just manifold interest rate / lizardman's constant (plausibly higher than usual because of 99% chance of NA)

predictedNO

@jacksonpolack I would interpret the 3% as roughly 0% to 6%. Yes, discount rates apply, and the high chance of N/A means that there's ~100x less incentive to buy NO than usual, amplifying the effect of discount rates.

One superforecasting group put the probability at about 0.02% per month a few months ago - see https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/2nDTrDPZJBEerZGrk/samotsvety-nuclear-risk-update-october-2022. So I think this market did end up being in the right ballpark earlier. At the end of the year it should have gotten closer to 0 but there were better profit opportunities for year-end free money.

predictedNO

NIST beacon is https://beacon.nist.gov/beacon/2.0/chain/2/pulse/123244

predictedNO

@Tetraspace first 42 digits are 534849D4B6FB0F958C860A0D38007F201C9B7E3FD6, mod 100 is 32, so resolve N/A

predictedNO

surprised pikachu

Very cool market

rotating

predictedNO

Oh yea, also I added M$10k in liquidity. This doesn’t solve the problem with discount rates, but ignoring that it should mean adjusting the market can absorb enough money to make research time as worth it in absolute terms as it is for regular markets? I think?

The pulse used will be https://beacon.nist.gov/beacon/2.0/pulse/time/1672531200 if that happens after midnight, otherwise the next one, I think.

(Sold my shares for 26, for a less than 0.06 profit in expectation (since odds this resolves positively are nonzero).

Well that's unfortunate. Seems impossible to make a nontrivial amount of money in expectation on this question.

No, you don't get to keep your profit. If a market resolves N/A, all transactions are undone.

Question: If I sell these NO shares later for a profit before market close and then this resolves N/A, do I get to keep my profit?

wow a 1% chance at free money!

Assuming no nuclear weapons and this being my only trade on this market and no resolution risk, I have a 99% probability to lose no mana. I expect a greater than 1% chance to make a bunch of mana for 9 months because I can sell this stake here at a profit.

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/KRFXjCqqfGQAYirm5/samotsvety-nuclear-risk-forecasts-march-2022 Samotsvety predicts 0.067%/mo nuclear weapons used, and 18% given that that London is hit, for 0.1% that London is hit in the rest of this year, which is 9% this resolves YES.

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