(100× amplified odds; details within) Will a nuclear weapon hit London in 2022?
3%
chance
This market resolves YES if a nuclear weapon is detonated in or above Greater London. If a nuclear weapon does not hit London, then I will check the first 42 digits of the MNIST beacon, mod 100, for the first beacon after this question closes, or another public fair source of randomness if that turns out to be a bad way to generate a public truly random number for whatever reason. If it is 0, I will resolve NO. Otherwise, I will resolve N/A. This means that, for this market, you should treat NO as if it is 100 times less likely to happen than it actually is. For example, if your actual expected outcome is 0.01% YES, 99.99% NO, you should expect this to resolve with probabilities 0.01% YES, 0.9999% NO, 98.9901% N/A, which means that your price of a YES share should be ~1% (actually 0.99%). Some other values, for calibration (using the formula YES' = YES/(YES + (1-YES)/100), where YES' is the price for this question, and YES is your actual probability): 0.02% YES => ~2% YES' (actually 1.96%) 0.05% YES => ~5% YES' (actually 4.76%) 0.1% YES => 9% YES' 0.2% YES => 17% YES' 0.5% YES => 33% YES' 1% YES => 50% YES' 2% YES => 67% YES' 5% YES => 84% YES' 10% YES => 92% YES' 20% YES => 96% YES' 50% YES => 99% YES' 100% YES => 100% YES'
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GeorgeVii avatar
GeorgeVii
sold Ṁ2,845 of NO

rotating

Tetraspace avatar
Tetraspace
is predicting NO at 9%

Oh yea, also I added M$10k in liquidity. This doesn’t solve the problem with discount rates, but ignoring that it should mean adjusting the market can absorb enough money to make research time as worth it in absolute terms as it is for regular markets? I think?

Tetraspace avatar
Tetraspace
bought Ṁ1,000 of NO

The pulse used will be https://beacon.nist.gov/beacon/2.0/pulse/time/1672531200 if that happens after midnight, otherwise the next one, I think.

WilliamKiely avatar
(Sold my shares for 26, for a less than 0.06 profit in expectation (since odds this resolves positively are nonzero).
WilliamKiely avatar
Well that's unfortunate. Seems impossible to make a nontrivial amount of money in expectation on this question.
NcyRocks avatar
N.C. Young
bought Ṁ1 of NO
No, you don't get to keep your profit. If a market resolves N/A, all transactions are undone.
WilliamKiely avatar
William Kiely
bought Ṁ20 of NO
Question: If I sell these NO shares later for a profit before market close and then this resolves N/A, do I get to keep my profit?
Adam avatar
Adam
bought Ṁ20 of NO
wow a 1% chance at free money!
Gurkenglas avatar
Gurkenglas
bought Ṁ10 of YES
Assuming no nuclear weapons and this being my only trade on this market and no resolution risk, I have a 99% probability to lose no mana. I expect a greater than 1% chance to make a bunch of mana for 9 months because I can sell this stake here at a profit.
Tetraspace avatar
Tetraspace
bought Ṁ3 of NO
https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/KRFXjCqqfGQAYirm5/samotsvety-nuclear-risk-forecasts-march-2022 Samotsvety predicts 0.067%/mo nuclear weapons used, and 18% given that that London is hit, for 0.1% that London is hit in the rest of this year, which is 9% this resolves YES.