What conclusions will our discussion of prediction markets come to? | Manifold

What conclusions will our discussion of prediction markets come to?

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Ṁ162

Ṁ490

resolved Aug 12

ResolvedN/A

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37%

Prediction markets are superior to expert judgement for forecasting

20%

Prediction markets are only valuable to the extent that people are irrational and dishonest

5%

Unregulated, unsubsidized prediction markets are a net social welfare loss

10%

Government should use prediction markets to decide policy

4%

We should use prediction markets to decide the topics of all future meetups

24%

Prediction markets double as markets subsidizing the occurrence of unlikely events. Also, one of the meetup attendees will spontaneously decide to buy me a cookie.

At the August 12th Halifax rationalist meetup, we will be discussing prediction markets. What conclusion will we draw from this discussion?

Resolution: We will vote at the end on which conclusion seemed most strongly supported by our discussion. Ties will be broken at random.

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What made this resolve as N/A, out of curiosity?

@evergreenemily We ended up getting sidetracked by discussion of AI and nuclear war and barely talked about prediction markets. Next time I'll make that an option since it was pretty plausible in retrospect.

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Will people care about prediction markets by 2025?

Why should the average person care about prediction markets? Hit us with your best one-line argument!

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