What conclusions will our discussion of prediction markets come to?
12
490แน161resolved Aug 12
ResolvedN/A
37%
Prediction markets are superior to expert judgement for forecasting
20%
Prediction markets are only valuable to the extent that people are irrational and dishonest
5%
Unregulated, unsubsidized prediction markets are a net social welfare loss
10%
Government should use prediction markets to decide policy
4%
We should use prediction markets to decide the topics of all future meetups
24%
Prediction markets double as markets subsidizing the occurrence of unlikely events. Also, one of the meetup attendees will spontaneously decide to buy me a cookie.
At the August 12th Halifax rationalist meetup, we will be discussing prediction markets. What conclusion will we draw from this discussion?
Resolution: We will vote at the end on which conclusion seemed most strongly supported by our discussion. Ties will be broken at random.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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