Do prediction markets make the world better? | Manifold

Do prediction markets make the world better?

62

resolved Mar 17

Yes

No

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Is everyone in aggregate, on net better off because sites like Polymarket, Kalshi and Manifold exist, compared to if they didn’t exist?

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Play money is almost as good as real money without ruining lives of gambling addicts. So I don't see the value of the real money ones.

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Will X have a prediction market feature before 2030?

Are prediction markets more accurate than polls?

Will prediction markets become mainstream by 2028?

Props about Meta's Prediction Markets ("Arena")

Will prediction markets be formally integrated into a government's political system before 2040? 📜🏛️⚖️📊

Will Sam think prediction markets are good in 10 years.

Will "Many prediction markets would be better off a..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

When will the total market capitalization of prediction markets exceed 1 trillion USD?