Most of this is AI generated,

I just took the idea from this video and ran with it there will be no high effort resolutions:

https://youtu.be/73TLRFImsz8?si=Ugm1PAtlZxaDlucI

Resolution criteria

This market resolves based on a poll where traders vote on which societal impacts of prediction markets they believe are most likely to materialize. Traders can select multiple answers. Each answer resolves YES if a majority of voters believe that outcome is likely to occur, NO if a majority believes it unlikely, or N/A if there is insufficient consensus.

Background

Prediction markets have experienced explosive growth in participation and trading volumes, with weekly trading volumes exceeding $2 billion in October 2025. Polymarket reached over $20 billion in cumulative volume and explored a valuation near $9 billion by late 2025. In October 2024, Kalshi won a lawsuit against the CFTC, with a federal appeals court allowing it to revive the first fully regulated election prediction markets in the United States.

Prediction markets can democratize forecasting by turning aggregated insights into a public good, or they could become instruments of manipulation and inequality where those with the largest bankrolls can dictate perceived realities by betting on "truth".

Considerations

Prediction markets have emerged as an engine of viral misinformation, pumping out false and misleading claims to millions on social media, and their social media accounts face few rules or norms that govern journalism despite spreading faster than verified reporting. Clients have expressed concerns regarding the use of material non-public information in prediction markets, with risks including exploitation of sensitive information and market distortion from insider-driven trades. From a problem gambling standpoint, anyone can develop an addiction to prediction market activity just as they can in legalized gambling markets, and betting on futures is functionally gambling. Prediction markets are regulated as investments rather than gambling products, meaning typical state-enforced harm-minimization measures do not apply, yet functionally users stake money on uncertain outcomes that resolve in either full payout or nothing, with short event cycles permitting repeated re-entry and 24/7 mobile access.

This description was generated by AI.