Who will be caught insider trading in prediction markets?
13
Ṁ1.1kṀ1.3kDec 31
48%
xAI
41%
Any US Military branch
37%
Any Israeli military branch
36%
Google
33%
OpenAI (After Feb. 27)
32%
KPMG
13%
Anthropic
11%
Mr. Beast (After Feb. 27)
A member of the listed organization must be penalized. The action must be a substantial action, including a fine, ban from a prediction market, termination, demotion, etc. A warning is not sufficient. If any other regulator such as the SEC or CFTC takes significant action, also resolves YES. If an exchange takes action, also resolves YES.
The enforcement action must take place from market open to EOY 2026. The insider trading action can occur at any time before market close.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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