Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan in 2025?
82
1kṀ41k
2026
9%
chance

Resolves YES if either of the following:

  • The Associated Press and the New York Times both report that the People's Republic of China has launched a full-scale invasion of Taiwan.

  • At least 1,000 military personnel or at least 1 tank from the People's Liberation Army have been deployed (this can mean dispatched with intent to land but is blocked by taiwanese forces, or they make landfall) to Taiwan for the purpose of putting the sovereignty of the main island under PRC rule. Invasion of solely the outlying islands (e.g. kinmen) do not count

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1mo

The sweepstakes market for this question has been resolved to partial as we are shutting down sweepstakes. Please read the full announcement here. The mana market will continue as usual.

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2mo

What would be the warning signs if this were to happen this year?

2mo

@mattparlmer question now has a sweepcash version if you're interested

2mo

@ian tragically I do not have the right state ID for this yet

reposted 2mo

sweepified!

2mo

We will be sweepifying this soon!

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