What will be the warning signs for the invasion of Taiwan?
27
9.4kṀ5227
2100
83%
China launches military drills around Taiwan
79%
At least one western country tells its citizens to leave China
79%
Submarine cables around Taiwan are damaged
78%
Reports about the discovery of a Chinese spy in Taiwan's military
77%
Warnings from Western intelligence agencies about Chinese invasion preparations
77%
China engages in a partial/total naval blockade of Taiwan
75%
A western think-tank warns about a Chinese naval build-up
72%
Major cyberattack on Taiwanese infrastructure
70%
At least one western country charters a fight to evacuate its citizens from Taiwan
70%
China shoots down a Taiwanese aircraft
66%
Taiwan revokes visa of pro-Beijing influencer
66%
Taiwan shoots down a Chinese aircraft
66%
China issues new warning to its citizens about travelling to the US
61%
China declares a no-fly zone over Taiwan
60%
China fires missiles/rockets/artillery/railguns over Taiwan
60%
A military ship sinks in the Pacific in suspicious circumstances (or due to clear evidence of hostile action)
60%
Reports that China is building new concentration camps
60%
China switches its industrial overcapacity over to military production
57%
A popular Chinese movie is released containing a scene with an amphibious assault
55%
Chinese soldiers are involved in active combat outside of Chinese territory (excluding UN peacekeeping)

This question resolves once China invades Taiwan. The statements that are relevant as warning signs to the invasion of Taiwan, and refer to things that occurred in the 12 months prior to the date of the invasion (or overlap significantly with this period) and up until 48 hours before the invasion start time, resolve as YES.

The statements must be at least adjacent to Taiwan or connected to significant geopolitical players with China/Taiwan interests. Events that could heighten global tensions, be broadly disruptive or are significant historical events are also acceptable. This includes but is not limited to major technological developments and catastrophes.

In the context of this question, the invasion start time is considered to be the first moment a soldier from the Chinese mainland sets foot on the main island of Taiwan as part of an invasion force. Soldiers that are part of a covert infiltration operation are not included. If there is some ambiguity about which exact time should be considered based on this criteria, then a "best matching" time will be selected.

Statements that refer to things that did not occur resolve as NO. Answers that occurred strictly more than 12 months before the invasion resolve as NO. Answers that are uncertain or ambiguous resolve as N/A.

If this invasion does not take place before January 1st 2100, then all the answers resolve as N/A.

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