Will the US experience a recession in 2022?
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Ṁ2457resolved Apr 7
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This market resolves to YES if the NBER states that a recession began sometime in 2022, and NO otherwise.
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@IsaacKing I've been waiting to resolve on the minute chance that the NBER states that there was a recession that started sometime near the end of 2022, but given today's unemployment data that seems exceedingly unlikely. I'll resolve it NO.
I don't think it's as high but think there is cause for concern: https://twitter.com/RecessionAlert2/status/1504078540517556227
"Goldman cuts U.S. GDP forecast as it says recession odds are as high as 35%"
Source: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/goldman-cuts-u-s-gdp-forecast-to-a-full-point-below-consensus-as-it-says-recession-odds-are-as-high-as-35-11646999690
Yep, partly that post plus this one https://fullstackeconomics.com/theres-a-serious-risk-of-a-recession-in-2022/
I suspect due to the creation date that this market was inspired by the following post, but if not, you might find this interesting:
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/china-russia-and-the-inflation-situation
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