Will the US experience a recession in 2022?

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resolved Apr 7

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NO

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This market resolves to YES if the NBER states that a recession began sometime in 2022, and NO otherwise.

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Do we know the correct resolution for this market?

predictedNO

@IsaacKing I've been waiting to resolve on the minute chance that the NBER states that there was a recession that started sometime near the end of 2022, but given today's unemployment data that seems exceedingly unlikely. I'll resolve it NO.

I don't think it's as high but think there is cause for concern: https://twitter.com/RecessionAlert2/status/1504078540517556227

"Goldman cuts U.S. GDP forecast as it says recession odds are as high as 35%" Source: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/goldman-cuts-u-s-gdp-forecast-to-a-full-point-below-consensus-as-it-says-recession-odds-are-as-high-as-35-11646999690

Yep, partly that post plus this one https://fullstackeconomics.com/theres-a-serious-risk-of-a-recession-in-2022/

I suspect due to the creation date that this market was inspired by the following post, but if not, you might find this interesting: https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/china-russia-and-the-inflation-situation

The market closes in 17 days, but I plan to resolve this in 2023. I'm less interested in how MM thinks the probability changes over time, and more interested in the probability at this exact moment in time.

This market is closing in only 17 days?

i'm expecting the crash to hit 2023 tbqh.

Recessions are rare. Even if we are “due for one”

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