Will the US experience a recession in 2022?
36
521
100
resolved Apr 7
Resolved
NO
This market resolves to YES if the NBER states that a recession began sometime in 2022, and NO otherwise.
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sold Ṁ0 of YES

Do we know the correct resolution for this market?

predicted NO

@IsaacKing I've been waiting to resolve on the minute chance that the NBER states that there was a recession that started sometime near the end of 2022, but given today's unemployment data that seems exceedingly unlikely. I'll resolve it NO.

bought Ṁ10 of NO
I don't think it's as high but think there is cause for concern: https://twitter.com/RecessionAlert2/status/1504078540517556227
bought Ṁ1 of NO
"Goldman cuts U.S. GDP forecast as it says recession odds are as high as 35%" Source: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/goldman-cuts-u-s-gdp-forecast-to-a-full-point-below-consensus-as-it-says-recession-odds-are-as-high-as-35-11646999690
bought Ṁ1 of NO
Yep, partly that post plus this one https://fullstackeconomics.com/theres-a-serious-risk-of-a-recession-in-2022/
bought Ṁ1 of YES
I suspect due to the creation date that this market was inspired by the following post, but if not, you might find this interesting: https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/china-russia-and-the-inflation-situation
bought Ṁ1 of NO
The market closes in 17 days, but I plan to resolve this in 2023. I'm less interested in how MM thinks the probability changes over time, and more interested in the probability at this exact moment in time.
bought Ṁ20 of YES
This market is closing in only 17 days?
bought Ṁ2 of NO
i'm expecting the crash to hit 2023 tbqh.
bought Ṁ10 of NO
Recessions are rare. Even if we are “due for one”