Will the US experience a recession in 2022?

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Ṁ100

resolved Apr 7

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This market resolves to YES if the NBER states that a recession began sometime in 2022, and NO otherwise.

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10 Comments

33 Holders

54 Trades

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sold Ṁ0 of YES

Do we know the correct resolution for this market?

predicted NO

@IsaacKing I've been waiting to resolve on the minute chance that the NBER states that there was a recession that started sometime near the end of 2022, but given today's unemployment data that seems exceedingly unlikely. I'll resolve it NO.

bought Ṁ10 of NO

I don't think it's as high but think there is cause for concern: https://twitter.com/RecessionAlert2/status/1504078540517556227

bought Ṁ1 of NO

"Goldman cuts U.S. GDP forecast as it says recession odds are as high as 35%" Source: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/goldman-cuts-u-s-gdp-forecast-to-a-full-point-below-consensus-as-it-says-recession-odds-are-as-high-as-35-11646999690

bought Ṁ1 of NO

Yep, partly that post plus this one https://fullstackeconomics.com/theres-a-serious-risk-of-a-recession-in-2022/

bought Ṁ1 of YES

I suspect due to the creation date that this market was inspired by the following post, but if not, you might find this interesting: https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/china-russia-and-the-inflation-situation

bought Ṁ1 of NO

The market closes in 17 days, but I plan to resolve this in 2023. I'm less interested in how MM thinks the probability changes over time, and more interested in the probability at this exact moment in time.