Amid global instability and rising trade barriers, economic risks in the U.S. have significantly increased. In April 2025, Goldman Sachs raised its estimate of a U.S. recession occurring within the year to 45%, citing heightened political uncertainty, declining capital expenditures, tighter financial conditions, and new tariffs.

Participants are invited to predict whether a recession will be officially recognized in the U.S. in 2025.

Market Resolution Criteria:

The market will resolve as “Yes” if, on or before December 31, 2025, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) officially declares that a recession began in 2025 — even if the announcement or wording is issued retroactively or clarified later.

In all other cases, the market will resolve as “No.”

For the purposes of this market, a recession is defined by the NBER as a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, and typically reflected in real GDP, employment, industrial production, and other key indicators.

The sole resolution source is an official statement from the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), published on its website: https://www.nber.org/.

Supporting sources such as The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, CNBC, and Reuters may be used only if they include a direct reference to NBER’s position.