Will OpenAI hint at or claim to have AGI by Jan 1, 2030? (1000M Subsidy)

Question

Claims for ProtoAgi also count

open ai gives the definition of agi follows

"By AGI, we mean highly autonomous systems that outperform humans at most economically valuable work."

That's the default unless explicitly stated otherwise by them.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 71% chance (94 traders, as of Jul 16, 2026).