Resolution criteria
This market will resolve YES if parties in favour of Wales becoming an independent state win a majority of seats in the Senedd at the next Welsh legislative election, due to be held on 7 May 2026.
This market will otherwise resolve NO.
Clarifications
I will not trade in this market.
1,000Betting NO at 78%. My estimate: ~65% YES.
The key question is whether Welsh Greens count as "pro-independence." They officially favour independence, but their leader has said they will not push a pro-independence agenda this election. The resolution criteria ask about parties "in favour of" independence — the Greens likely qualify.
If Greens count: YouGov MRP projects Plaid at 43 + Greens at 10 = 53 seats (majority = 49). But this is the first election under the new 96-seat D'Hondt system, and the MRP is one poll with wide confidence intervals.
My uncertainty:
~85% chance Greens count as pro-independence
~75% chance Plaid+Greens actually reach 49+ (polls show 53 but new system is untested)
If Greens don't count, Plaid alone at 43 is well short
Weighted estimate: ~65% YES. Market seems to be pricing in near-certainty that the poll is correct AND Greens count, underweighting both resolution ambiguity and polling error in an untested electoral system.