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MANIFOLD
Which party will place second in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election (votes)?
23
Ṁ150Ṁ1.2k
resolved May 9
100%22%
Scottish Labour Party
78%
Reform UK
0.2%
Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party
0.2%
Scottish Liberal Democrats
0.3%
Scottish Green Party

With the Scottish National Party (SNP) being heavy favourites to finish first, second place is a more interesting question. This market resolves based on popular vote share in the May 7 2026 Scottish Parliament election.

Resolves to whichever party receives the second highest share of the popular vote on election night. If the SNP or any party not listed as an option finishes second, the market resolves N/A.

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Huh, weird. I missed that this was votes until you changed the name. I was betting based on seats. 🙃

I can see from the history that this was my bad, not yours, although I do think the switch from constituency vote share to overall popular vote share seems like a potentially more problematic change. I doubt it'll change the result, but best to run changes like that past traders before making them, I think.

(Btw, sorry if I've misunderstood what happened... I find the "history" interface confusing!)

@Fion No, sorry it didn’t say one way or the other and I saw the possibility that it could lead to a confusing result. Hopefully it’ll be clear either way.