Will Reform win a majority of the seats in the 2026 Senedd election?
8
Ṁ100Ṁ497Dec 31
20%
chance
11
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
"Yes" if a majority of Senedd members / MSs are affiliated with The Reform Party after the next Senedd election.
"No" if less than a majority of MSs are affiliated with The Reform Party after the next Senedd election.
N/a if there is some crisis and no Senedd election occurs in 2026. N/a if the Senedd ceases to exist before the next Senedd election.
No rules lawyering about the name of the party, we know what we mean.
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