Will pro-independence parties win a majority of seats at the 2026 Welsh election?
4
Ṁ1kṀ1.4kMay 7
37%
chance
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6H
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Resolution criteria
This market will resolve YES if parties in favour of Wales becoming an independent state win a majority of seats in the Senedd at the next Welsh legislative election, due to be held on 7 May 2026.
This market will otherwise resolve NO.
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