In the next Scottish Parliamentary Election, due in 2026, what %age of the seats will each party win?

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resolved May 9

45%45%

Scottish National Party

13%14%

Reform

13%13%

Labour

12%10%

Greens

9%9%

Conservative

8%7%

Liberal Democrats

0.3%

Alba

0.4%

All others

Each answer resolves to the %age share of the seats in the Scottish Parliament that that party gets. For example if the Green Party wins 8 of the 129 seats their %age share is 8/129 = 6.2% of the total seats in the parliament.

Note that the election is due on 7 May 2026, but may happen before.

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The results of this should be known this evening. I will update the result then, or tomorrow.

@PontiMin I have now put up the results. Unfortunately Manifold requires whole percentages so I had to round to the nearest percent.

bought Ṁ5 YES

Tfw you didn't realise the scottish parliament isn't determined by the same election as westminster 😯

Is it still FPTP or an actually good system?

bought Ṁ50 NO

The Scottish parliament is elected by AMS: https://pontifex.substack.com/p/voting-systems-additional-member

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