In the next Northern Ireland Assembly election, will nationalists win at least as many seats as unionists?
7
23
190
2028
72%
chance

In the Northern Ireland Assembly, parties and indepedent candidates are designated as nationalist, unionist, or other. In every election to the Northern Ireland Assembly so far, unionists have won more seats than nationalists, with the most recent election in 2022, unionists won 37 seats and nationalists 35 (and other 18).

This market resolves to YES if in the next election to the Assembly, the number of seats won by nationalists is greater than or equal to the number of seats won by unionists (it doesn't matter how many seats other wins), and resolves to NO if this is not the case.

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