Skip to main content
MANIFOLD
Will China have active export controls on silicon metal (MG-Si) on December 31, 2026?
1
Ṁ100Ṁ20
Dec 31
38%
chance

This market resolves YES if China's Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) or State Council has active export control measures — including licensing requirements, quotas, or bans — specifically targeting silicon metal (MG-Si, HS 2804.69) on December 31, 2026.

YES if: Active MOFCOM export licensing, quota, or ban on MG-Si in effect on Dec 31, 2026 NO if: MG-Si exports proceed under normal MFN conditions with no additional restrictions

Resolution sources (priority order):

  1. China MOFCOM export control registry (mofcom.gov.cn)

  2. China State Council / NDRC official trade policy announcements

  3. US Department of Commerce / BIS China trade policy updates

  4. Reuters, Bloomberg, FT China trade policy reporting

Market context
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

People are also trading

Will China have active export controls on silicon metal (MG-Si) on December 31, 2027?
38% chance
Will China continue gallium export restrictions targeting Japan on May 1, 2026?
91% chance
Will China's MOFCOM samarium export controls be actively in force on June 30, 2026?
56% chance
Will China's MOFCOM samarium export controls be actively in force on December 31, 2026?
57% chance
Will China have active, unresumed export controls on graphite anode material (HS 3801.10/3801.90) on December 31, 2026?
52% chance
Will China's MOFCOM samarium export controls be actively in force on December 31, 2027?
71% chance
Will China have active, unresumed export controls on graphite anode material (HS 3801.10/3801.90) on December 31, 2027?
57% chance
Will China have active export controls on zirconium oxychloride (ZOC) on December 31, 2026?
30% chance
Will China have active export controls on zirconium oxychloride (ZOC) on December 31, 2027?
40% chance
Will China's MOFCOM samarium export controls be actively in force on June 30, 2027?
68% chance