This market resolves YES if China has active, formal MOFCOM export controls (licensing requirements, quotas, or bans) on zirconium oxychloride (ZOC, ZrOCl2; HS 2827.39 or 2825.60) that are in force on December 31, 2026.

Current status (April 2026): No active ZOC export controls. ZOC is freely exported by Chinese producers to Western nuclear fuel fabricators and chemical companies.

YES if:

• MOFCOM imposes export licensing requirements for ZOC that are in force on Dec 31, 2026

• New export quotas or bans targeting ZOC (HS 2827.39) are in active effect on the settlement date

• Any other Chinese government restriction materially curtailing ZOC exports is in force

NO if:

• No formal MOFCOM export controls on ZOC are in force on December 31, 2026

• Informal "guidance" or non-binding restrictions that do not require export licenses

• Controls announced but not yet in force as of the settlement date

Resolution sources (priority order):

1. China Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) export control gazette (mofcom.gov.cn)

2. China State Council or NDRC announcements on critical mineral export controls

3. Reuters, Bloomberg, Financial Times reporting on Chinese chemical export controls