This market resolves YES if China's MOFCOM export license requirement for samarium (Sm), samarium oxide (Sm2O3), and samarium alloys is actively enforced on December 31, 2026 — i.e., exporters must obtain an export license under MOFCOM Decree No. 18 or equivalent order.
Background: MOFCOM Decree No. 18 (April 2025) imposed export licensing requirements for samarium. A one-year suspension was announced in November 2025 following Busan diplomatic negotiations. The suspension expires approximately November 2026. December 31 is 4-6 weeks after expiry — controls either reimposed or extended.
YES if: The suspension has expired without extension (or been revoked early), and export licenses are required for samarium as of December 31, 2026 NO if: The suspension has been extended or controls permanently rescinded, such that no license is required on December 31, 2026
Resolution sources (priority order):
MOFCOM official gazette (mofcom.gov.cn) — export control announcements
China Ministry of Commerce policy announcements
Reuters / Bloomberg reporting on China rare earth export policy
S&P Global / Fastmarkets commentary on China REE export status
1,000