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MANIFOLD
Will China restrict exports of silicon metal on December 31, 2026?
2
Ṁ100Ṁ82
Dec 31
10%
chance

Resolves YES if, as of December 31, 2026 (23:59 China Standard Time), China has active export controls (licensing requirements, quotas, or bans) on silicon metal (MG-Si, HS 2804.69). Resolves NO otherwise.

Resolved from official MOFCOM and General Administration of Customs announcements, supported by major news and trade-press reporting.

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