This market resolves YES if China has active, unresumed MOFCOM export controls (licensing requirements, quotas, or bans) on natural graphite or synthetic graphite anode material (HS 3801.10 synthetic graphite, HS 3801.90 coated spherical graphite) on December 31, 2026.

Current status (April 2026): Controls are suspended (the late-2025 1-year pause from US-China trade talks). Value = 0. This market resolves YES if the suspension expires and controls resume before/by December 31, 2026, OR if new controls are announced before that date.

YES if:

• MOFCOM reinstates export licensing requirements for HS 3801.10 or HS 3801.90 that are in active effect on December 31, 2026

• New export control measures targeting graphite are announced and in force by Dec 31, 2026

NO if:

• The 2025 suspension remains in effect through December 31, 2026

• No active export controls on graphite anode material as of the settlement date

Resolution sources (priority order):

1. China Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) official gazette (mofcom.gov.cn)

2. China State Council or NDRC official announcements

3. Reuters, Bloomberg, Financial Times China trade policy reporting