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MANIFOLD
Will a Democrat win these US House races in 2026?
51%
Wisconsin 1 · Mitchell Berman (D) v. Bryan Steil (R)
55%
Pennsylvania 1 · Bob Harvie (D) v. Brian Fitzpatrick (R)
44%
Maine 2 · Matt Dunlap (D) v. Paul LePage (R)
61%
Michigan 4 · Sean McCann (D) v. Bill Huizenga (R)
62%
Montana 1 · Sam Forstag (D) v. Aaron Flint (R)
63%
New York 17 · Cait Conley (D) v. Mike Lawler (R)
37%
Colorado 3 · Dwayne Romero (D) v. Jeff Hurd (R)
64%
Virginia 1 · Shannon Taylor (D) v. Rob Wittman (R)
35%
Arizona 2 · Jonathan Nez (D) v. Eli Crane (R)
33%
Florida 13
72%
Michigan 10 · Christina Hines (D) v. Michael Bouchard (R)
77%
Michigan 7 · William Lawrence (D) v. Tom Barrett (R)
80%
Ohio 9 · Marcy Kaptur (D) v. Derek Merrin (R)
83%
Pennsylvania 10
85%
Arizona 1
85%
North Carolina 1 · Don Davis (D) v. Laurie Buckhout (R)
86%
Iowa 3
86%
Colorado 8
88%
Pennsylvania 7
88%
Wisconsin 3 · Rebecca Cooke (D) v. Derrick Van Orden (R)

Each option provisionally resolves once both the New York Times and Decision Desk HQ (or, if those become defunct, other reliable sources) call the race and do not retract the call for 24 hours. Final resolution will be according to certified results.

Whether a candidate is "a Democrat" is determined by the party affiliation displayed on the ballot (being a Dem as one party on a fusion ticket counts.)

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opened a Ṁ250 YES at 96% order

California 40 can resolve no as it is 2 republicans that advanced to General @Robincvgr

I added candidate names to the most competitive races, if anyone sees an issue please let me know so we can fix it. Mods/creator are welcome to do this for the others if you want, it'll autoformat if you keep the same style on the /election page.

They still resolve to the PARTY AFFILIATION and not the name!

  • Also now 50k liquidity, will probably add more soon

  • New feature, sort by Mid % -- @Robincvgr you can overrule the default if you want, but this seemed appropriate!

Can @ManifoldPolitics please subsidise this market

17 mana subsidy too low @Manifold

This market is excellent and extremely useful to have. I made a companion for the non-competitive seats:

/Evansbot/how-many-safe-house-seats-will-flip

@cherrvak If you wanna put up some NO orders, I'll take the YES side of a 50/50 on Texas 28, Arizona 1, and Arizona 6

@Robincvgr oh I was just squinting at maps on the internet while clicking buttons basically at random. I have no idea what's going on in those districts, I just guessed on whether the maps had the corresponding section colored in redder or bluer