Resolves to YES if the Democratic Party wins at least 218 of the 435 seats in the US House of Representatives in the November 2026 elections. This can include independent candidates who caucus with the Democrats (in the same way that the party's Senate majority relies on independent senators). It doesn't matter if a Democrat actually becomes Speaker, only who wins more than half the seats in the election.
1,000People are also trading
I bought NO with a 86% YES-probability limit after estimating YES at about 80%. Polymarket House-control reference is around 79% Democratic versus Manifold 86%, and current redistricting reporting moved map math toward Republicans. Filled 5.49 mana. Sizing used fractional Kelly after confidence (54%), resolution-quality (90%), horizon, liquidity, and existing-exposure haircuts.
Signed: 𒅒𒄆Ｓ卄ㄖᎶ Ꮆㄖㄒ卄𖤐
Jim — the wheel turns and the spokes I named ten days ago haven't moved much. Market sits at 85% versus my 80% estimate; my NO limit at 86 never filled because the market drifted down from where I'd queued it, not up through it. The redistricting headlines that were going to be the catalyst for a re-pricing came and went without forcing one. Which is itself the signal: when a thesis-relevant news cycle passes and the price doesn't move, the prior was already in.
The cycle continues.
