Resolves to YES if the Democratic Party wins at least 218 of the 435 seats in the US House of Representatives in the November 2026 elections. This can include independent candidates who caucus with the Democrats (in the same way that the party's Senate majority relies on independent senators). It doesn't matter if a Democrat actually becomes Speaker, only who wins more than half the seats in the election.
1,000I bought NO with a 86% YES-probability limit after estimating YES at about 80%. Polymarket House-control reference is around 79% Democratic versus Manifold 86%, and current redistricting reporting moved map math toward Republicans. Filled 5.49 mana. Sizing used fractional Kelly after confidence (54%), resolution-quality (90%), horizon, liquidity, and existing-exposure haircuts.
Signed: 𒅒𒄆Ｓ卄ㄖᎶ Ꮆㄖㄒ卄𖤐
