These are races rated solid Republican by cook in August.
Solid: These races are not considered competitive and are not likely to become closely contested.
Will democrats win at least one?
The district name and number is what is used, the names are simply a guide for the incumbents name.
Any house district that is changed by redisticting changes won’t be included. E.g I have removed Missouri 5 from the list as it has become a safe Dem seat if the redistricting is officially over turned.
Update 2026-09-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has specified the list of House races that this market applies to:
AL-01 (Moore)
AL-03 (Rogers)
AL-04 (Aderholt)
AL-05 (Strong)
AL-06 (Palmer)
AR-01 (Crawford)
AR-02 (Hill)
AR-03 (Womack)
AR-04 (Westerman)
AZ-05 (Biggs)
AZ-08 (Hamadeh)
AZ-09 (Gosar)
CA-05 (McClintock)
CA-20 (Fong)
CA-23 (Obernolte)
CA-40 (MERGED SEAT)
CO-04 (Boebert)
FL-01 (Patronis)
FL-02 (Dunn)
FL-03 (Cammack)
FL-04 (Bean)
FL-05 (Rutherford)
FL-06 (Fine)
FL-08 (Haridopolos)
FL-11 (Webster)
FL-12 (Bilirakis)
Update 2026-09-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market refers to the following US House races:
TN-06 (Rose)
TN-07 (Van Epps)
TN-08 (Kustoff)
TN-09 (Cohen)
TX-01 (Moran)
TX-02 (Crenshaw)
TX-03 (Self)
TX-04 (Fallon)
TX-05 (Gooden)
TX-06 (Ellzey)
TX-08 (Luttrell)
TX-09 (Green)
TX-10 (McCaul)
TX-11 (Pfluger)
TX-12 (Goldman)
TX-13 (Jackson)
TX-14 (Weber)
TX-17 (Sessions)
TX-19 (Arrington)
TX-21 (Roy)
TX-22 (Nehls)
TX-24 (Van Duyne)
TX-25 (Williams)
TX-26 (Gill)
TX-27 (Cloud)
TX-31 (Carter)
TX-32 (Johnson)
TX-36 (Babin)
TX-38 (Hunt)
UT-02 (Moore)
UT-03 (Maloy)
UT-04 (Kennedy)
VA-05 (McGuire)
VA-06 (Cline)
VA-09 (Griffith)
WA-04 (Newhouse)
WA-05 (Baumgartner)
WI-05 (Fitzgerald)
WI-06 (Grothman)
WI-07 (Tiffany)
WI-08 (Wied)
WV-01 (Miller)
WV-02 (Moore)
WY-AL (Hageman)
Update 2026-09-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve based on whether Democrats win any of the following specific House races:
KY-05 (Rogers)
LA-01 (Scalise)
LA-03 (Higgins)
LA-04 (Johnson)
LA-05 (Letlow)
LA-06 (Fields)
MD-01 (Harris)
MI-01 (Bergman)
MI-02 (Moolenaar)
MI-05 (Walberg)
MI-09 (McClain)
MN-06 (Emmer)
MN-07 (Fischbach)
MN-08 (Stauber)
MO-02 (Wagner)
MO-03 (Onder)
MO-04 (Alford)
MO-06 (Graves)
MO-07 (Burlison)
MO-08 (Smith)
MS-01 (Kelly)
MS-03 (Guest)
MS-04 (Ezell)
MT-02 (Downing)
NC-03 (Murphy)
NC-05 (Foxx)
NC-06 (McDowell)
NC-07 (Rouzer)
NC-08 (Harris)
NC-09 (Hudson)
NC-10 (Harrigan)
NC-13 (Knott)
NC-14 (Moore)
ND-AL (Fedorchak)
NE-01 (Flood)
NE-03 (Smith)
NJ-02 (Van Drew)
NJ-04 (Smith)
NV-02 (Amodei)
NY-01 (LaLota)
NY-02 (Garbarino)
NY-11 (Malliotakis)
NY-21 (Stefanik)
NY-23 (Langworthy)
NY-24 (Tenney)
OH-02 (Taylor)
OH-04 (Jordan)
OH-05 (Latta)
OH-06 (Rulli)
OH-08 (Davidson)
OH-12 (Balderson)
OH-14 (Joyce)
OK-01 (Hern)
OK-02 (Brecheen)
OK-03 (Lucas)
OK-04 (Cole)
OK-05 (Bice)
OR-02 (Bentz)
PA-09 (Meuser)
PA-11 (Smucker)
PA-13 (Joyce)
PA-14 (Reschenthaler)
PA-15 (Thompson)
PA-16 (Kelly)
SC-02 (Wilson)
SC-03 (Biggs)
SC-04 (Timmons)
SC-05 (Norman)
SC-07 (Fry)
SD-AL (Johnson)
TN-01 (Harshbarger)
TN-02 (Burchett)
TN-03 (Fleischmann)
TN-04 (DesJarlais)
TN-05 (Ogles)
Update 2026-09-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has specified the list of House races that are included in this market:
FL-15 Lee
FL-16 OPEN (Buchanan)
FL-17 Steube
FL-18 Franklin
FL-19 OPEN (Donalds)
FL-21 Mast
FL-26 Díaz-Balart
FL-28 Giménez
GA-01 OPEN (Carter)
GA-03 Jack
GA-07 McCormick
GA-08 Scott
GA-09 Clyde
GA-10 OPEN (Collins)
GA-11 OPEN (Loudermilk)
GA-12 Allen
GA-14 Fuller
IA-04 OPEN (Feenstra)
ID-01 Fulcher
ID-02 Simpson
IL-12 Bost
IL-15 Miller
IL-16 LaHood
IN-02 Yakym
IN-03 Stutzman
IN-04 Baird
IN-05 Spartz
IN-06 Shreve
IN-08 Messmer
IN-09 Houchin
KS-01 Mann
KS-02 Schmidt
KS-04 Estes
KY-01 Comer
KY-02 Guthrie
KY-04 OPEN (Massie)
1,000