Skip to main content
MANIFOLD
Will a Democrat win these US House races in 2026?
11%
Alaska at-large
73%
Arizona 1
28%
Arizona 2
80%
Arizona 6
90%
California 3
92%
California 9
80%
California 13
89%
California 21
74%
California 22
89%
California 27
19%
California 40
91%
California 41
87%
California 45
91%
California 47
92%
California 49
41%
Colorado 3
70%
Colorado 8
91%
Connecticut 5
23%
Florida 13
76%
Florida 23

Each option provisionally resolves once both the New York Times and Decision Desk HQ (or, if those become defunct, other reliable sources) call the race and do not retract the call for 24 hours. Final resolution will be according to certified results.

Whether a candidate is "a Democrat" is determined by the party affiliation displayed on the ballot (being a Dem as one party on a fusion ticket counts.)

Market context
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:

Can @ManifoldPolitics please subsidise this market

17 mana subsidy too low @Manifold

This market is excellent and extremely useful to have. I made a companion for the non-competitive seats:

/Evansbot/how-many-safe-house-seats-will-flip

@cherrvak If you wanna put up some NO orders, I'll take the YES side of a 50/50 on Texas 28, Arizona 1, and Arizona 6

@Robincvgr oh I was just squinting at maps on the internet while clicking buttons basically at random. I have no idea what's going on in those districts, I just guessed on whether the maps had the corresponding section colored in redder or bluer