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MANIFOLD
Will a Democrat win these US House races in 2026?
31%
Alaska at-large
68%
Arizona 1
43%
Arizona 2
77%
Arizona 6
92%
California 3
83%
California 9
79%
California 13
92%
California 21
89%
California 22
97%
California 27
60%
California 40
82%
California 41
80%
California 45
85%
California 47
90%
California 49
52%
Colorado 3
71%
Colorado 8
94%
Connecticut 5
50%
Florida 13
57%
Florida 23

Each option provisionally resolves once both the New York Times and Decision Desk HQ (or, if those become defunct, other reliable sources) call the race and do not retract the call for 24 hours. Final resolution will be according to certified results.

Whether a candidate is "a Democrat" is determined by the party affiliation displayed on the ballot (being a Dem as one party on a fusion ticket counts.)

Market context
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Can @ManifoldPolitics please subsidise this market

17 mana subsidy too low @Manifold

This market is excellent and extremely useful to have. I made a companion for the non-competitive seats:

/Evansbot/how-many-safe-house-seats-will-flip

@cherrvak If you wanna put up some NO orders, I'll take the YES side of a 50/50 on Texas 28, Arizona 1, and Arizona 6

@Robincvgr oh I was just squinting at maps on the internet while clicking buttons basically at random. I have no idea what's going on in those districts, I just guessed on whether the maps had the corresponding section colored in redder or bluer