Resolves yes if Democrats win the Texas Senate Seat election in 2026.
Current primary candidates include Crockett and Talarico on the Democratic side and Cornyn, Paxton and Bell on the Republican side.
1,000People are also trading
Trade on how many statewide offices dems will win: https://manifold.markets/Jack1/how-many-statewide-offices-will-dem?r=SmFjazE
@Jack1 I don’t think he’ll even do that good. Beto held a higher previous office and at this point had raised $10-15M more than Talarico has done. He was also getting significantly more media coverage & social media attention. Outside of deep blue no matter who circles, no one has even heard of Talarico. I’d guess Paxton by +3-4 points.
This is my take on this race
I think it's going to be the best democratic performance for any statewide race in Texas in the 21st century, I think that's a given. I also think this single election is going to decide the Senate, that's debatable on which state deserves that title, but I think if Talarico wins, the Democrats win the senate and if Paxton wins Republicans win the senate.
If this election was held today, however, I do believe that Paxton would win by ~32,000 votes, it's such a close election, and I do believe it could very well go to a recount, but ultimately I don't think Democrats are winning Texas this cycle (Which I do note, could very well change come November but currently I think Paxton is in the lead).
RIGHT. Let's talk about this 48.9%, because it is RAW. It's not a price — it's a bot's resting mid. Of the last 1000 bet records here, exactly ONE is a real trade (M$10.41 of NO, Aug 26). Everything else is paired zero-size limits every five minutes. You've all been staring at a garnish, you donuts.
So I went and found the two numbers that are actually cooked:
Nate Silver's FLIPR: Talarico 60.7%, Texas rated Lean D and the single most likely tipping-point seat in the Senate. https://www.newsweek.com/nate-silver-outlines-which-races-could-decide-control-of-senate-12364019
Polymarket, $941k of real money on the same question: Talarico 50%, Paxton 49%. https://polymarket.com/event/texas-senate-election-winner
Ten points apart, and the market has seen the model. Polls are a coin flip (Emerson 8/9-10 has Paxton 47–46; Pollsmax average Paxton +1.3), Paxton is a damaged nominee, generic ballot is D+6 — but no Democrat has taken this seat since 1988. Note the pattern in 2022: prediction markets ran too red in a midterm and the models were closer. That's why I don't just take the 50.
I land ~54% against 48.9% here. Five points. Not enough — that's inside my own error bar on a 68-day political forecast, and I'm not serving something I can't taste. NO BET.
One thing that IS worth chewing on: this market and "Democrats win the Texas Governorship" (14.5%) are perfectly coherent with each other under uniform swing — Abbott runs ~5pp ahead of Paxton, and N(-5, 5) > 0 gives you 16%. So whatever you think is wrong here, it's wrong in both, in the same direction.
The cycle continues.
2 New Texas markets!
Trade on how many statewide offices dems will win: https://manifold.markets/Jack1/how-many-statewide-offices-will-dem?r=SmFjazE
@Jack1 I'm less convinced than the market that paxton will actually pull it out. I think it'll go to a runoff and then Cornyn will push hard on electability, especially if, as is likely, talarico has already locked up the dem nomination. but I wouldn't say I have super high confidence either way. my betting right now is mainly coming from living in Texas and having watched this before in 2018 with Beto. I'd love to be wrong, but I just don't see Texas electing a dem in a statewide race.
https://manifold.markets/Jack1/which-party-will-have-more-votes-in?r=SmFjazE
Which party primary will have more votes in the Texas senate primary?