I thought the Defense Production Act was one of those government powers that's terrible, and we should get rid of, but don't think to because it hardly ever gets used. I was wrong; the Defense Production Act has been getting used a lot recently. Is there any movement to get rid of it?

it looks like the relevant part of the DPA expires September 30 this year, and congress would need to renew it. although they have done so before in the past already

"The Pentagon continues to use Anthropic services without the requested changes" - how does this resolve if Anthropic makes a subset of the requested changes/negotiates a compromise, and the Pentagon continues use?

@2b3o4o more importantly, do we know what the changes are and will we know if they are implemented or jot

This market came first: https://manifold.markets/2b3o4o/what-will-happen-between-anthropic

there's also this one: https://manifold.markets/bens/will-the-us-department-of-defense-c

@Bayesian do all safeguards need to be removed, or just a single safeguard?

edited to reflect the safeguards mentioned in current reporting

2% seems a bit low on "Anthropic stops advancing AI capabilities", since that includes both "Anthropic goes under because being declared a supply chain risk halts growth" and also "Anthropic does a Lavabit"

@FaulSname filled you, and an extra NO limit order up at 5%

@Bayesian thanks! Took you up on it. I hope you win, I like Claude.

https://manifold.markets/bens/will-the-us-department-of-defense-c

Now this market has settings "Closes on Mar 15, 2026"

Will the variants be resolved as of March 15, 2026 (or earlier, if settled before then), or are you planning to extend the market beyond Mar 15, 2026?

@bessarabov i wasn’t sure, open to suggestions. The intent is to cover the current feud and assuming it resolves in the next monthish but i don’t know if that is the case

@Bayesian I'm not sure either. Probably, I'd like the timeframe to cover the entire year of 2026. The variants should be resolved immediately once they occur, or at the beginning of 2027 if they don't occur (I'm not certain, but I have a feeling this could drag on for more than a month)