Will the US Department of Defense cut ties with Anthropic or label them a supply chain risk by end of June 2026?
22
Ṁ1kṀ772Jun 30
1H
6H
1D
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1M
ALL
75%
Continues to use Anthropic software
16%
Ends (nearly) all contracts with Anthropic but does NOT label Anthropic a supply chain risk
9%
Ends (nearly) all contracts with Anthropic AND labels Anthropic a supply chain risk
The DoD is threatening to label Anthropic a supply chain risk, forcing everyone who has contracts with the Pentagon to stop using Anthropic.
https://x.com/DavidLawler10/status/2023425130148626767?s=20
This seems like it would be a very big deal.
The three possible outcomes are pretty mutually exclusive, but if there's gray area between two (or even all three?) of the options, I may resolve them to PROB. I will try my best to resolve to the most clear outcome. I will not bet in this market to remain as objective as possible.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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