Which companies will stand with Anthropic (Yes) vs DoD (No)?
12
Ṁ1.1kṀ1.2kApr 30
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
50%
Amazon
49%
Google
49%
Microsoft
49%
Nvidia
If the company in question cancels DoD contracts in order to keep doing business with Anthropic, in response to a supply chain risk designation, resolves Yes, and vice versa. If a company keeps doing business with both, or cuts ties with both, resolves 50%. As of question close date.
Contracts cancelled should be > 50% of dollar value of total contracts; they must be announced as cancellations, with some sort of accelerated wind-down, not merely a decision not to renew or not to enter new contracts.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
Sort by:
My own analysis, not a statement about resolution, is that these probably resolve 50% if /ScottAlexander/will-anthropic-escape-the-supply-ch resolves Yes.
People are also trading
Related questions
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
Will Anthropic win its lawsuit against the Pentagon supply-chain designation by June 2026?
70% chance
What will happen between Anthropic and the Pentagon?
Outcomes of the Anthropic vs. US government feud?
Will Anthropic open applications for its Cyber Verification Program before July 1, 2026?
73% chance
Will Anthropic's lawsuit against the Pentagon be settled out of court before August 1, 2026?
40% chance
Will Google stick to the same red lines as Anthropic for the US military by EOY 2026?
54% chance
Will the DC Circuit rule for Anthropic on the merits in the Pentagon supply chain case by Aug 31, 2026?
55% chance
Will Amazon divest from Anthropic in 2026?
7% chance
Will Amazon buy Anthropic in 2026?
2% chance