Will evidence emerge that Anthropic's pursuit of regulatory capture is aided by U.S. Adversaries by 2027 year end? | Manifold

Will evidence emerge that Anthropic's pursuit of regulatory capture is aided by U.S. Adversaries by 2027 year end?

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9

Ṁ405

2028

10%

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1W

1M

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Gavin Baker said on a video that he thinks that the efforts of AI labs to do regulatory capture and stop open source models (among other stuff) might be aided by U.S. adversaries.

This market resolves if some reputable news outlet reports that Anthropic has dealings with U.S. adversaries to sabotage U.S. AI capabilities. Doesn't need to ultimately be proven true.

I won't bet.

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If you and/or relevant experts come to believe that Anthropic aren't pursuing regulatory capture at all, does market resolve NO or NA?

@Fion Would be resolved to NO. But I think it's incontroversal that they are seeking regulatory capture.

@MP can you explain what you mean by regulatory capture

@TiredCliche regulating ai to create some sort of oligopoly and keep competition away

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Will Anthropic remain independent by EOY 2024?

Will there exist a compelling demonstration of deceptive alignment by 2026?

What will be true of Anthropic's best LLM by EOY 2025?

Will Anthropic have AI-related IP stolen before 2026?

Will there be evidence by the end of 2024 of AI having a significant impact on the outcome of any political election?

Will a leading AI organization in the United States be the target of an anti-AI attack or protest by the end of 2024?

By 2028, will I think Anthropic has been net-good for the world?

Will the US government take control of Anthropic or its major technologies before 2030?

Will there be evidence of extraterrestrial life presented by the end of the year 2040?

Will there be a high-profile power struggle at Anthropic before 2026?

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