MANIFOLD
What will happen between Anthropic and the Pentagon?
20
Ṁ150Ṁ580
Jul 2
92%
A non-Anthropic LLM is deployed and accessible to end users on classified Pentagon networks
53%
Anthropic agrees to "all lawful use" of their models (or it is otherwise made clear that no use restrictions on the models will be in effect)
43%
Anthropic's Pentagon contract is canceled
30%
More than 10 Anthropic employees publicly state that they're leaving due to (or partially due to) the result of this conflict
29%
Defense Production Act used to compel Anthropic
19%
Anthropic is designated as a supply chain risk

By July 1st 2026.

  • Update 2026-02-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the option "A non-Anthropic LLM is deployed and accessible to end users on classified Pentagon networks" to resolve YES:

    • The system must be approved for classified information (not just controlled unclassified information)

    • The system must actually be available to use for classified information

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>"A non-Anthropic LLM is deployed and accessible to end users on classified Pentagon networks"

This is already the case: https://www.war.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/4355797/hegseth-introduces-department-to-new-ai-tool/

@ChurlishGambit I don't think so - the article says "This version is approved to handle controlled unclassified information." To resolve this yes I would need to see something which is both approved for and actually available to use for classified information.

@2b3o4o Wouldn't using an LLM during a secret operation count as classified?

@ChurlishGambit Yes. Are you saying you think a non-Anthropic LLM has been used for a secret operation? The article you linked is just talking about unclassified use cases for Gemini.

@2b3o4o No, just trying to get more clarification. I think you are expecting more rigor of process from the MIC than they actually have

@ChurlishGambit Ah ok, thanks for helping clarify the question :) For more context I've found Azure OpenAI is already cleared for classified use cases, so personally I think the Pentagon choosing to deploy that (and it being publicly reported) is by far the most likely way this resolves yes: https://devblogs.microsoft.com/azuregov/azure-openai-authorization/

@2b3o4o Ah! Great find. Love to see a market creator willing to actually find info for their market, too many people here can't be bothered. Gonna sink more into YES on that, then

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