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MANIFOLD
Israeli Politics 2026 Prop Bets [add your predictions]
31
Ṁ2.6kṀ15k
Dec 31
98%
Ra’am passes the threshold
98%
Religious Zionism–Zehut passes the threshold
98%
Likud is the biggest party after next elections
78%
Speaker of the is replaced within 4 weeks after elections day
57%
New PM other than Netanyahu
54%
Stalemate: no new government, another elections (similar to 2019)
43%
Opposition block forms a minority coalition with external support of Arab block
33%
The first candidate tasked with forming a government fails
22%
Opposition-led coalition, with temporary support from Arab parties, is sweared in and immediately disbanded - just so Netanyahu will not be caretaker PM
7%
More than 6% of eligible votes go to parties below the threshold
3%
The largest party wins fewer than 25 seats
3%
At least one incumbent coalition party fails to cross the electoral threshold
3%
Amcha Yisrael passes the threshold
2%
Reservists + New Economy passes the threshold
1.7%
Opposition block (ex. Arab parties) wins a majority in the next elections
1.5%
Bennet’s new party is the biggest party after the next elections
1%
Opposition block (ex Arabs) wins more seats than coalition block; Netanyahu declares victory
Resolved
YES
Budget law is passed before deadline (end of March)
Resolved
YES
Netanyahu claims the elections were stolen due to widespread fraud
Resolved
YES
New primary elections for Likud before the general elections

  • Update 2026-04-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): When counting parties, alliances and parties will both be included in the full list (not just standalone parties).

  • Update 2026-07-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Questions apply to the current elections, even if the final outcome is known after 2026 ends.

  • Update 2026-10-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Benny Gantz is not considered part of the incumbent coalition.

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bought Ṁ10 YES

@traders Likud issued a press release claiming that. If someone could find a direct quote from Netanyahu I will resolve.

bought Ṁ25 YES

@Lemming This is a tweet in which he directly claims that.

@Lemming

Benjamin Netanyahu - בנימין נתניהו (@netanyahu) on X

Benjamin Netanyahu - בנימין נתניהו (@netanyahu) on X
הודעת הליכוד: פרשת רע״מגייט היא רעידת אדמה. גנבו את הבחירות בישראל! הדברים של השופט סולברג על מעורבות של גורמים זרים שהתערבו ושיחדו מצביעים לטובת המפלגות הערביות הם טלטלה חסרת תקדים. מדובר בפיגוע בדמוקרטיה שמטרתו להוביל להשתלטות זרה על הכנסת, לאיסלאמיזציה של ישראל, ולהפלת שלטון הימין כדי להובי…

@SpaceEngineer thanks! Resolved.

bought Ṁ10 YES

does benny gantz not count as an incumbent political party??

@yaakovgrunsfeld he was not considered part of the incumbent coalition at the time this market was created

@Lemming officially withdrawn

@Lemming do we know whether this would work?

@AhronMaline legally, it can. Politically, that’s what the market is for.

bought Ṁ100 YES

@Lemming This resolves YES.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/cohen-levin-ohana-and-regev-top-likud-primary-with-over-60-of-vote-counted/

bought Ṁ10 YES

Clarification: the questions apply for the current elections, even if the final outcome will be known after 2026 ends.

bought Ṁ50 NO

are we distinguishing between “alliances” and “parties” and if so how

@TeapotinSagittarius good catch. Even though I technically mentioned “party”, I am going to use the entire list, inclusive of alliances.

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