Will the Israeli-Palestinian war end by January 20, 2025?
47
1kแน€12k
resolved Feb 5
Resolved
NO

Resolves YES if the war ends by 11:59PM Eastern Time on January 20, 2025, and NO otherwise. "The war ends" means that fighting/violence has stopped completely.

Inspired by https://www.timesofisrael.com/trump-told-netanyahu-he-wants-gaza-war-over-by-time-he-enters-office-sources/

Get
แน€1,000
to start trading!

๐Ÿ… Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1แน€333
2แน€186
3แน€123
4แน€82
5แน€67
Sort by:

I contacted the creator on Discord and they indicated the market should resolve No because there is no evidence of a long-term stop to the war.

Resolving No on behalf of duck_master.

If the ceasefire would be in force, does that count? "fighting/violence has stopped completely", but maybe after a month it will resume (or not).

@mods, the creator states in their profile that they are "soft-quitting" Manifold and explicitly ask mods to resolve their markets, any guidance on how you plan on interpreting the market resolution criteria? As long as the ceasefire holds and no fighting takes place in Gaza, can this resolve to YES?

@aleven It is still too early to say if the war has ended

@aleven We can still ask @duck_master to resolve first, and see what happens.

ยฉ Manifold Markets, Inc.โ€ขTerms + Mana-only Termsโ€ขPrivacyโ€ขRules