If Netanyahu is PM at the end of July 2025, will the Israel-Hamas ceasefire have lasted according to the agreement?
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100Ṁ1339Aug 2
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"Conditional on the cease-fire lasting according to the agreed terms."
Update 2025-06-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): This market refers specifically to the March cease-fire between Israel and Hamas, which the creator notes has since failed. It does not refer to the more recent Israel-Iran cease-fire.
Update 2025-06-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified that the resolution of this market now depends only on whether Netanyahu is the Prime Minister of Israel at the end of July 2025.
If Netanyahu is PM, the market will resolve to No.
If Netanyahu is not PM, the market will resolve to N/A.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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