Will Israel and Hezbollah have a major war before January 1st, 2030?

10,000 casualties or more within a month constitutes a major war.

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sold Ṁ46 YES

bought and then sold due to the criterion. 10k a month is unreasonably high. This is not Russia-Ukraine, the scale here is much smaller, even in a scenario of an all out war.

@Lemming It's not every month, there just has to be one month where 10k there are a total of 10k casualties. that has happened in the entirety of the Ukraine Russia war. Also many civilians on both sides will be killed/wounded, so it isn't outside the realm of possibilities.

What exactly is a major war?

@nathanwei minimum 10,000 casualties in a month.

bought Ṁ50 NO

@WilliamGiammona That’s super high. Casualties are just deaths or all casualties? Anyway they’ve never had such a war before.

@nathanwei Casualties are killed or wounded. And yes it is very high, but that's what I consider a massive war to be.

This seems an unreasonably high—by this standard the 2nd Lebanon war (2006) wasn't a major war (about 7000 casualties).

Also, are you differentiating between civilian and military casualties? This is notoriously difficult to do in such conflicts.

Hezbollah is much much stronger than in 2006, it isn't even reasonable to compare. This would be an all out war, not limited engagement, where Israel's objective is to end the organization entirely like they are doing in Gaza. I don't differentiate between civilian and military casualties.

@WilliamGiammona fair enough, but more detail on resolution criteria would be appreciated.

What if there are several small wars which total up to 10,000 casualties? What if the swperation between them is unclear?

What if a war begins near the end of 2029 and only passes the casualty threshold in 2030?

@DanielFox9fff Not several small wars, there must be one large war where within the timespan of said war, there must be at least 10,000 casualties in a single month). If it starts in 2029 but doesn't pass the threshold until 2030 then it doesn't count.

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