Will Israel and Hezbollah have a major war before January 1st, 2030?
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2030
28%
chance

10,000 casualties or more within a month constitutes a major war.

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What exactly is a major war?

@nathanwei minimum 10,000 casualties in a month.

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@WilliamGiammona That’s super high. Casualties are just deaths or all casualties? Anyway they’ve never had such a war before.

@nathanwei Casualties are killed or wounded. And yes it is very high, but that's what I consider a massive war to be.

This seems an unreasonably high—by this standard the 2nd Lebanon war (2006) wasn't a major war (about 7000 casualties).

Also, are you differentiating between civilian and military casualties? This is notoriously difficult to do in such conflicts.

Hezbollah is much much stronger than in 2006, it isn't even reasonable to compare. This would be an all out war, not limited engagement, where Israel's objective is to end the organization entirely like they are doing in Gaza. I don't differentiate between civilian and military casualties.

@WilliamGiammona fair enough, but more detail on resolution criteria would be appreciated.

What if there are several small wars which total up to 10,000 casualties? What if the swperation between them is unclear?

What if a war begins near the end of 2029 and only passes the casualty threshold in 2030?

@DanielFox9fff Not several small wars, there must be one large war where within the timespan of said war, there must be at least 10,000 casualties in a single month). If it starts in 2029 but doesn't pass the threshold until 2030 then it doesn't count.

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