Will Israel and Hezbollah have a major war before January 1st, 2030?

Idf reports 440+ Hezbollah killed in ground war. 100 per day. No count of wounded but 300 wounded per day. Would mean tracking to 12400 for the month. The IDF totals probably don’t include the continuing Beirut air campaign which is another 50-300 per day.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/idf-says-400-hezbollah-men-killed-since-start-of-ground-op-as-it-pummels-terror-group/amp/

@brianwang

At least 1500 Hezbollah fighters killed. Probably 2-3x wounded plus the targeting of leaders and others further back

https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-october-18-2024

This would be on pace to 10k+ Kia or wounded. But Lebanon health ministry and IDF estimates will diverge

https://today.lorientlejour.com/article/1429776/1974-killed-including-127-children-in-israeli-attacks-since-october-2023-abiad.html

Oct 3

1,974 martyrs, including 127 children and 261 women in the attacks, and 9,384 wounded.

275 dead, 1384 wounded since sept 29, 1659 total, 800 were on 29,30. 859 likely Oct 1,2. rate tracking to 13000.

Averaging 4-5X wounded vs dead.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/idf-says-over-250-hezbollah-operatives-killed-in-southern-lebanon-ground-offensive/

Over 250 Hezbollah killed in ground offensive

@brianwang How many wounded? Even if it’s 1000 total casualties it won’t get to 10000 by end of the month at this rate right?

some say the 10 days up to Sept 29 was the number reported for

The past 10 days have been the deadliest in Lebanon’s history 1700+ people killed 8000+ people critically injured and handicapped

https://twitter.com/MAJalaplageMD/status/1840602395509719364

Sept 29 105 martyrs and 359 wounded

Sept 30 had 95 killed and 172 wounded

@brianwang This is just one guy and barely above 10K. Pretty sure September won’t resolve yes.

@nathanwei I will wait a few days to see what the consensus is from reliable sources.

@nathanwei September will be close but I doubt Lebanon Health will have time to update and count with the chaos. If they went back and checked the hospitals and were doing other searches.

October averaging at 360+ per day like the last the two days of air and now with ground should be over the 10k.

@brianwang Yea, I haven't seen anything concrete to show that there were 10,000 casualties in September yet.

Al-Abyad detailed the medical facilities provided to the displaced and ensuring communication on 1214 and 1787.

Total death toll since October 8: 1,640 martyrs and 8,408 wounded

https://x.com/mophleb/status/1840031170056069605?s=46&t=f-bNB2yoSVy4zrXsbxx_RA

Killed and wounded total is10048. Not including Israeli killed and wounded. But need to exclude killed and wounded before September. Which was about 2312. Will more than 2270 get killed or wounded over the next 3 days. Including finding killed or wounded in rubble.

Aug 13. 2312 casualties in Lebanon per health ministry

https://x.com/mophleb/status/1823620936240632304?s=46&t=f-bNB2yoSVy4zrXsbxx_RA

@brianwang I doubt it which is why I’m the largest no holder. I think this is more like a 50/50 market.

@nathanwei I think October will keep the pace of 330-500 per day. Especially as. I expect a land invasion to start. September will be close. There were at least about 500 per day. 100 killed and about 400 wounded, see what happens today. Need 2000 today. Would have been certain if it was any. 30 day period.

@brianwang The ground invasion hasn't even begun yet, there will be heavy casualties when it happens.

Does "casualties" include wounded? If so, how wounded must someone be to count?

Is this only counting soldiers? Hezbollah, among other terror groups is well known to disguise its fighters and civilians, so that number would be very hard to confirm.

@DanielFox9fff Casualties are killed, wounded, or captured, and applies to both civilians and military personnel. They must be wounded enough to need to go to the hospital where the health ministry will list them as wounded.

new numbers for today are 70-88 dead and 400-450 wounded in Lebanon. Sept total about 6200. Reports that high intensity air will continue for 6-10 days.

With operations authorized. It seems likely that Israel could transition to a mixed air and ground campaign about the second week of October.

https://twitter.com/HaberNoktam/status/1838948340118978691

51 dead and 223 injured this morning. 274+ casualities. Israel had two injuries from drone attack at port. Total in sept is about 6000.

Israeli cabinet is meeting to authorize ground invasion. Authorization means Netenyahu and generals will have authority to go whenever they think it is right. If it rolls into October Averaging 330 per day will get to 10k.

Need 2 Mondays. 500 dead and 1800 wounded to get to 10k this month.

I went 50 on Yes. Because it is casualities of dead and wounded.

>> TUESDAY (pager attack) 12 dead, 2850 wounded (200 critical)

>> WEDNESDAY (radio attack) 9 dead, 300 wounded

Increased to 37 dead.

Friday 45 dead, 66 wounded

Monday 558 dead, 1835 wounded

>> TOTAL ~640 dead, 5050 wounded

5690 casualties plus some more earlier in Sept.

~10-20 wounded on the Israeli side and a few deaths

7 more days of intense bombardment.

avg 800 per day to get to 10000

@brianwang The ground invasion has not even begun yet either.

Can it be 30 days like last part of September be the first part of October?

@brianwang I interpreted it as a calendar month. I think I'm about 50-50. I think Hezbollah will try to back down.

@nathanwei Yes, it's in a calendar month, not a 30 day period. I will edit it and make it more clear.

@nathanwei Hezbollah backing down will not work. Israel goal is to eliminate the threat that is keeping 100,000 people from living in their homes in the north. Now Lebanon had to evacuate. A peace deal would be guarantees of no missile attacks and pulling back behind the southern rivers for a true buffer zone. Israel has detailed intelligence that if there was a ceasefire would give Hezbollah time to rehide weapons. Israel is going higher intensity to eliminate weapons and terrorists. They know where both of them are in detail because of the intelligence success.

Maybe 20,000 active Hezbollah left and 20000 reserves. 2500 radwan commandos. The main unit for infiltration. Israel will go for them and a few hundred leaders. Plus 5k-10k main units. Forcing hezbollah to third and fourth tier and only 20% of their weapons leaves them vulnerable to getting taken out by Christian’s and others looking to settle scores from the civil war. Israel could move into to the first couple of rivers across the border to take out tunnels and other problem areas. Holding a buffer zone two rivers deep means the north will be secure.

@brianwang Do you think a ground invasion is inevitable? It would be nice if Hezbollah just quietly pulled behind the Litani. Would be even nicer if Hezbollah disarmed.

What would a ground invasion look like? Just up to the Litani?

@brianwang We are only about 50/50 on a ground invasion: https://manifold.markets/LolPopb5f2/will-the-israel-invade-lebanon-by-t?play=true

@nathanwei I think any occupation would be temporary. Going in deeper would be to establish corridors of control like in Gaza . But 30km deep up to Litani lets them get rid of the tunnels. And it can be traded with the Lebanon government. Make the Lebanon government take responsibility for no missiles to be fired. Lebanon evacuated move back home when Israeli move back home.

Force terms.

It would mean short range missiles would not work. Long range missiles are more costly bigger and tougher to setup and launch. Air power combined with superb intelligence is working now but probably it will not be enough. But they have soften things up a lot so the ground attack will be effective and relatively safe.

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