This market predicts whether Israel will experience a civil war, defined as a large-scale, prolonged conflict within Israel involving significant segments of the population and/or the government.

Resolution Criteria:

• Market resolves YES if major news outlets report the outbreak of civil war in Israel before the end of 2025

• Market resolves NO if no civil war is reported by the end date

References:

• https://www.france24.com/en/video/20241123-what-we-are-seeing-tonight-in-israel-is-a-civil-war-%E2%80%93-so-far-in-words

• https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/politics-and-diplomacy/article-814102

• https://www.haaretz.com/opinion/2024-10-11/ty-article-opinion/.premium/the-only-way-to-prevent-civil-war-in-israel-is-a-return-to-the-oslo-path/00000192-77f0-d65e-afbf-fff715710000

• https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20240625-the-altalena-affair-is-israel-heading-towards-a-civil-war/