Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by December 31, 2025, a formal peace agreement is signed between Israel and Palestinian representatives, leading to a cessation of hostilities and the establishment of diplomatic relations. The agreement must be publicly acknowledged by both parties and reported by reputable news organizations such as Reuters, Associated Press, or the United Nations. If no such agreement is reached by the specified date, the market will resolve to "No".

Background

The Israel-Palestine conflict has persisted for decades, characterized by intermittent periods of violence and attempts at peace negotiations. In early 2025, a ceasefire was brokered between Israel and Hamas, involving phased exchanges of hostages and prisoners, as well as plans for humanitarian aid and reconstruction in Gaza. However, this ceasefire was disrupted in March 2025 when Israel launched airstrikes on Gaza, effectively ending the truce. (en.wikipedia.org)

Subsequent efforts to revive peace talks have included international conferences and proposals. Notably, in July 2025, an international conference co-hosted by France and Saudi Arabia convened at the United Nations to advocate for a two-state solution. The conference aimed to develop a framework addressing the disarmament of Hamas, the release of hostages, the reform of the Palestinian Authority, and post-conflict planning. (en.wikipedia.org)

Considerations

• International Recognition: Several Western countries, including France, have announced plans to recognize the State of Palestine, potentially influencing the dynamics of peace negotiations. (diplomatie.gouv.fr)

• U.S. Position: The United States has expressed opposition to unilateral recognition of Palestinian statehood and has called on countries to refrain from attending conferences that it deems hostile toward Israel. (en.wikipedia.org)

• Regional Proposals: Alternative peace initiatives have emerged, such as the "Emirate of Hebron" proposal by local sheikhs seeking to establish independent governance separate from the Palestinian Authority, indicating internal divisions and varied approaches to resolving the conflict. (en.wikipedia.org)

Traders should monitor developments in diplomatic relations, international recognition efforts, and regional proposals, as these factors may significantly impact the likelihood of a formal peace agreement being reached before the end of 2025.