@EmaiDeca and @traders

I'm going to reopen this market as I'm inclined to agree with traders that the criteria for Yes has not yet been met. namely, the criteria lists not only a signed peace agreement but a "cessation of hostilities and the establishment of diplomatic relations" which I'd say remains to be seen.

ceasefires are always a bit tenuous and it's still being referred to as "steps to peace" without much mention of diplomatic relations. reading through updates on the progress of things (including this detailed piece from the CFA), these "pending" parts are pivotal to establishing "diplomatic relations":

I don't see any arguments for Yes here including from the market creator, so I believe we're all in agreement. we have time to wait for a concrete Yes resolution - the market close date is not until the end of the year.

@shankypanky thanks for taking the time to review the resolution of this market

as an update to my comment above: there were reports today that the ceasefire was broken (both sides accusing the other of being the first to violate the agreement) but enforcement of the ceasefire agreement and delivery of aid have resumed.

@traders does anybody know how we make sure the @mods noticed this market?

@someoneR5c8l I'm looking at it - I need to have a look at the current state of things in Israel/Palestine as I haven't been following closely, but I understand a lot of folks here say it's premature. the "establishment of diplomatic relations" seems like criteria that may not have been met?

I'm having a read through the comments and the news, but just a heads up that I've picked it up. thanks for tagging again.

@shankypanky Thanks for looking into this :)

The diplomatic relations was definitely not met, but also, as @aleven said, there was no peace agreement signed - just a 1st phase ceasefire, and even it seems fragile.

@mods premature resolution. Current situation is the first phase of a ceasefire that hasn’t yet met the owner’s own description.

@Panfilo I just sold on negative profit all my shares (I voted Yes) :|

The market should be reopened, and the title updated to "End of war Israel-Palestine and diplomatic relations before 2026" for additional clarity for the traders, as this requirement is a central piece of the resolution criteria

@MiguelLM I would even question that a formal peace agreement has been signed. So far, the agreement has mostly been described as a "ceasefire" or "first phase" of a "peace plan", not a peace agreement (see e.g. here and here).

@aleven war end in this phase 1 ceasefire agreement was conditional to Israel government approval, and this didn't happen

@EmaiDeca can you prove that diplomatic relations have been established? We need this evidence to justify a YES resolution

@EmaiDeca your resolution criteria required mutual recognition and establishment of diplomatic relations. these didn't happen. can you explain your resolution?

@mods we may need a new owner for this market.

The original creator has not responded to any clarification requests in the last two months.

There is an open discussion among traders about how to interpret resolution criteria. Namely the sentence “establishment of diplomatic relations”.

Disregard the request. The YES holder arguing that mutual recognition was not required for resolution of this market just sold the full position, so I guess we all have the same understanding of the resolution criteria

What I understand as diplomatic relations includes the initial requirement of diplomatic recognition, as listed by ScienceDirect:

“Diplomatic Recognition

Diplomatic relations begin with diplomatic recognition. The competence of a State to engage in relations with the other States includes the competence of granting diplomatic recognition. There are two kinds of diplomatic recognition in international relations: recognition of a State and recognition of a government. Diplomatic recognition of a State, or State recognition, is an act by which the recognizing State declares that it will deal with the recognized State on an equal footing. When a State desires to engage in a formal relationship with another State for the first time, the former first communicates to the latter that it recognizes the latter being its equal and that the latter has competence to engage in such relations.”

Diplomatic Relation - an overview | ScienceDirect Topics

This Cambrige Dictionary definition is simpler and shorter. It is less academic, but it is probably the first definition that comes into mind for most people:

“diplomatic relations

the arrangement between two countries by which each has representatives in the other country”

Let me know if any of you have a better definition of diplomatic relations.

@MiguelLM we still need a new owner to resolve this market eventually, no?

@someoneR5c8l
If by the time of closure, 1st January 2026, the original owner continues to be inactive, a mod will have to resolve.

Whether we need an owner before then or not, is now unclear to me. Market creators may be inactive for a while and then be back.

My original request was under the scenario of conflicting interpretations of resolution criteria leading to strong swings between high and low YES peaks. This indicated, in my mind, a resolution criteria clarification couldn't wait for January. If this is no longer the case, and we have among the traders a common understanding, I would say we don't need a moderator to take over the market of someone else before closure. If we see again discussions about resolution criteria, we probably need an owner for the market.

Does this make sense to you?

This is the first time I'm in this scenario, so I don't know what the common practice is in Manifold for these cases.

@MiguelLM the owner just resolved. to YES :(

Ceasefire violated. Was it already signed? https://bsky.app/profile/carlquintanilla.bsky.social/post/3m35lmkmu4c2s

Edit: correct URL is https://abcnews.go.com/International/live-updates/israel-gaza-live-updates?id=126446763&entryId=126501331&userab=news_search_page_design_unification-429*variant_b_search_redesign-1787&userab=news_search_page_design_unification-429*variant_b_search_redesign-1787

I would say that ‘peace’ is when 2 or more countries are at war. In this case Israel declared war to Hamas. Isn’t it enough for the ‘peace’ to be achieved if they release the hostages and Israel is stop bombing Hamas in Palestine?

@MindBenderMads in my mind the resolution criteria is quite clear. We are betting based on this:

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by December 31, 2025, a formal peace agreement is signed between Israel and Palestinian representatives, leading to a cessation of hostilities and the establishment of diplomatic relations. The agreement must be publicly acknowledged by both parties and reported by reputable news organizations such as Reuters, Associated Press, or the United Nations. If no such agreement is reached by the specified date, the market will resolve to "No".

@MiguelLM Again, the Palestinian representatives are not at war with Israel 😅😅 but Hamas is. Palestine is not a state recognized by Israel and quite some other countries. So yeah… we have to settle whether or not a ceasefire agreement (which just happened) is enough for this market to solve yes or not. Because the

@MindBenderMads @EmaiDeca can you please clarify this? Because otherwise your market could not solve yes since the beginning

@MindBenderMads they can recognize each other and establish diplomatic relations. But as you said: it was a clear NO since market creation

Probably this major topic (diplomatic relations) should have been on the title

I get out of the market untio this is clarified