Here's a human-made video of a Rube Goldberg machine:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ss-P4qLLUyk

The Swish Machine: 70 Step Basketball Trickshot (Rube Goldberg Machine)

This outdoor Rube Goldberg Machine goes around my entire yard, and swishes a basketball shot after 70 steps. This video was filmed in one take, meaning there...

Eliezer Yudkowsky has predicted that the ability to generate a video like that (indistinguishable from reality even on close human inspection) from a prompt will require an AI that's within 1 year of AGI.

Since this is another leading indicator, I thought it would be good to have Manifold market for it.

Yudkowsky's thinking is that it takes a high-fidelity physics model to make all the balls and dominoes and things interact realistically. If you understand the physical world at that level, AGI isn't far behind.

FAQ

1. How long does the video have to be?

Maybe a minute? Don't quote me on that yet. Let's discuss in the comments what best hews to the spirit of the question, about a leading indicator for AGI.

Ask other clarifying questions in the comments as well -- I'll add them to this FAQ!

Related Markets

• https://manifold.markets/dreev/will-ai-be-lifechanging-for-muggles

• https://manifold.markets/dreev/instant-deepfakes-of-anyone-within

• https://manifold.markets/dreev/in-what-year-will-we-have-agi

[Ignore any auto-generated clarifications below this line. I'll add clarifications to the FAQ above.]